TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Sawicki vs Roman Wiza 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311911411911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:19 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Wiza to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1311911411911––
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 34–53 Roman Wiza Grzegorz Sawicki has won 34 of their 87 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Wiza beat Sawicki 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1955.5%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.1pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wiza
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-53 in 87
Wiza
Correct
gap of 19 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1242 vs Wiza 1264
Wiza
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 20% vs Wiza 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 20% vs Wiza 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki +1 · Wiza -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Wiza) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiza form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 1.85 / Wiza 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Wiza)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13235286
Sawicki1.85
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 127 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back20% 48 of 241
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 152
Wiza1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 103 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it81% 80 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSawicki2wins
AwayWiza8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWiza leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawickin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayWiza88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki1Wiza9n = 10Wiza took 9 of 10
S2Sawicki3Wiza7n = 10Wiza took 7 of 10
S3Sawicki2Wiza8n = 10Wiza took 8 of 10
S4Sawicki3Wiza2n = 5Sawicki took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSawickiWizaS − WBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match29.839.4−9.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiWizaBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 926 vs 407 / 94539.3%43.1%364 / 926 vs 407 / 945Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WizaSawicki 1.85/Wiza 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Wiza · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wiza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 20:20G. Sawicki2310940R. Wiza341211113
LSep 13 · 01:10G. Sawicki49141161262R. Wiza571691110113
LSep 12 · 17:30G. Sawicki28314561R. Wiza45111211113
LAug 30 · 04:20G. Sawicki26711351R. Wiza4211911113
LAug 29 · 18:45G. Sawicki218670R. Wiza331111113
WJul 5 · 02:45G. Sawicki4111811113R. Wiza28511481
WJul 4 · 23:05G. Sawicki51951115113R. Wiza52111181392
LJun 28 · 01:10G. Sawicki176830R. Wiza331111113
LJun 27 · 17:30G. Sawicki2681350R. Wiza371115113
LMay 17 · 00:20G. Sawicki167540R. Wiza331111113
G. Sawicki10
LOct 4 · 01:30G. Sawicki3.658770J. Badura1.241111113WOct 3 · 22:40G. Sawicki2.3011119113M. Sikon1.55681171LOct 3 · 21:05R. Szymik1.1713117113G. Sawicki4.751141171LOct 3 · 20:20R. Wiza1.781211113G. Sawicki1.9310940LOct 3 · 19:30G. Sawicki1.881177101J. Badura1.8291111123LOct 3 · 18:20G. Sawicki2.3013118692M. Durda1.521171111113LOct 3 · 07:45G. Sawicki1.836580S. Sojka1.831111113LOct 3 · 06:30G. Sawicki2.007140L. Bernacki1.731111113LOct 3 · 05:15G. Sawicki2.259131661J. Jesiek1.57111514113LOct 3 · 04:10W. Wojtaszczyk1.366131110113G. Sawicki3.00111171272
R. Wiza10
LOct 3 · 23:05R. Wiza2.106970J. Badura1.661111113LOct 3 · 21:30R. Wiza—4690M. Durda—1111113WOct 3 · 20:20R. Wiza1.781211113G. Sawicki1.9310940LOct 3 · 18:45R. Wiza2.8552111372R. Szymik1.361111511113LOct 3 · 17:30R. Wiza2.15131011862M. Sikon1.601112711113LOct 3 · 04:20D. Fira1.851511173R. Wiza1.85138150WOct 3 · 03:30K. Kowalski3.258770R. Wiza1.301111113LOct 3 · 02:45R. Wiza—77110H. Tkaczyk—1111133LOct 3 · 01:10R. Wiza1.80961671A. Ruszkiewicz1.91111114113WOct 3 · 00:20J. Michalski2.80581141R. Wiza1.3711119113
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