TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yan Krol vs Oleksandr Gomilko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Gomilko @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingYan Krol above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 54.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 78–97 Oleksandr Gomilko Yan Krol has won 78 of their 175 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:5154.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gomilko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
78-97 in 175
Gomilko
Correct
gap of 19 in 175, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1580 vs Gomilko 1611
Gomilko
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 20% vs Gomilko 60%
Gomilko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 40% vs Gomilko 60%
Gomilko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +1 · Gomilko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Gomilko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krol form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.00 / Gomilko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Gomilko)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13235042
Krol2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back31% 29 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Gomilko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 109 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol4wins
AwayGomilko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGomilko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol80%4 of 5
AwayGomilko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S2Krol4Gomilko6n = 10Gomilko took 6 of 10
S3Krol7Gomilko3n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S4Krol3Gomilko4n = 7Gomilko took 4 of 7
S5Krol1Gomilko3n = 4Gomilko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolGomilkoK − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.9−0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 588 vs 320 / 56850.7%56.3%298 / 588 vs 320 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoKrol 2.00/Gomilko 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.5%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Gomilko @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
0–3
Gomilko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 22:35Y. Krol4377111172O. Gomilko47111168113
WSep 26 · 21:35Y. Krol47111249113O. Gomilko46710111172
LSep 25 · 22:35Y. Krol3941111672O. Gomilko48119611113
LSep 20 · 02:05Y. Krol37981191O. Gomilko4111118113
WSep 19 · 01:35Y. Krol331111113O. Gomilko215970
LSep 13 · 02:05Y. Krol32571191O. Gomilko3711114113
LSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol541112912102O. Gomilko569141110123
WSep 6 · 02:05Y. Krol4412911123O. Gomilko3510114101
WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol341112113O. Gomilko2561090
LAug 29 · 21:35Y. Krol259970O. Gomilko331111113
Y. Krol10
WOct 4 · 00:05V. Lobas1.6711471172Y. Krol2.10911115113WOct 3 · 22:05O. Melashenko4.001185121Y. Krol1.2261111143LOct 3 · 03:05Y. Krol1.837650M. Marchuk1.831111113LOct 3 · 01:35Y. Krol1.738870K. Hrynenko2.001111113LOct 3 · 00:05Y. Krol2.00116491V. Lobas1.7391111113LOct 2 · 22:35Y. Krol2.1077111172O. Gomilko1.67111168113LOct 2 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6351111111D. Derevynskyi1.4411138133WSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113LSep 27 · 02:35Y. Krol1.8391280M. Marchuk1.831114113WSep 27 · 00:35V. Kobets2.639711101Y. Krol1.4411111113
O. Gomilko10
WOct 4 · 01:05V. Kobets2.006690O. Gomilko1.731111113WOct 3 · 21:05V. Lobas1.831551271O. Gomilko1.83131114113LOct 3 · 04:05V. Lobas1.91812711113O. Gomilko1.80111011672WOct 3 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50101112113D. Derevynskyi2.501231071LOct 3 · 00:35K. Hrynenko2.00511711113O. Gomilko1.7311911472WOct 2 · 22:35Y. Krol2.1077111172O. Gomilko1.67111168113LOct 2 · 21:35M. Marchuk1.91111148113O. Gomilko1.8065111192WSep 27 · 03:05V. Lobas1.838680O. Gomilko1.831111113WSep 27 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.911311117123O. Melashenko1.80151911102WSep 27 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.73911811113M. Marchuk2.0011311652
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