TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yan Krol vs Valentyn Lobas 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611411911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:51 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Valentyn Lobas at 54.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 37–39 Valentyn Lobas Yan Krol has won 37 of their 76 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5154.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-39 in 76
Lobas
Correct
gap of 2 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1609 vs Lobas 1632
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 40% vs Lobas 60%
Lobas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 70% vs Lobas 50%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -2 · Lobas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lobas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.00 / Lobas 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lobas)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228981
Krol2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 65 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back31% 29 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Lobas1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 112 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it79% 92 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol5wins
AwayLobas5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKroln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLobas55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol1Lobas9n = 10Lobas took 9 of 10
S2Krol8Lobas2n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S3Krol6Lobas4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S4Krol5Lobas4n = 9Krol took 5 of 9
S5Krol2Lobas3n = 5Lobas took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolLobasK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.2+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 585 vs 246 / 42950.9%57.3%298 / 585 vs 246 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobasKrol 2.00/Lobas 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 22:35Y. Krol47911115113V. Lobas4311781162
WSep 26 · 00:05Y. Krol4071111113V. Lobas34118961
LSep 20 · 00:05Y. Krol33811951V. Lobas3811511113
LSep 19 · 00:05Y. Krol4261111952V. Lobas51119911113
WSep 13 · 00:05Y. Krol4061211113V. Lobas331110481
LSep 12 · 00:05Y. Krol4241111792V. Lobas44118311113
LSep 6 · 00:05Y. Krol4494111192V. Lobas46111176113
LSep 5 · 00:05Y. Krol301010100V. Lobas361212123
WAug 29 · 22:35Y. Krol4312119113V. Lobas301051141
WAug 29 · 00:05Y. Krol495111111113V. Lobas4711913952
Y. Krol10
LOct 2 · 22:35Y. Krol2.1077111172O. Gomilko1.67111168113LOct 2 · 21:05Y. Krol2.6351111111D. Derevynskyi1.4411138133WSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113LSep 27 · 02:35Y. Krol1.8391280M. Marchuk1.831114113WSep 27 · 00:35V. Kobets2.639711101Y. Krol1.4411111113WSep 26 · 22:35V. Lobas1.6711781162Y. Krol2.10911115113WSep 26 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.73710111172Y. Krol2.00111249113WSep 26 · 03:05Y. Krol1.7381111113K. Hrynenko2.00114481WSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:05Y. Krol2.1071111113V. Lobas1.67118961
V. Lobas10
WOct 2 · 23:05V. Lobas1.441110118113D. Derevynskyi2.6341261172LOct 2 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.501111113V. Lobas1.507990LSep 27 · 03:05V. Lobas1.838680O. Gomilko1.831111113WSep 27 · 01:35V. Lobas1.44813511113V. Kobets2.63111111942WSep 27 · 00:05V. Lobas1.36118811113O. Melashenko3.0041111382LSep 26 · 22:35V. Lobas1.6711781162Y. Krol2.10911115113WSep 26 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3691111113M. Marchuk3.00119871WSep 26 · 04:05V. Lobas1.83911118113O. Gomilko1.8311851182LSep 26 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.501111113V. Lobas1.505510LSep 26 · 00:05Y. Krol2.1071111113V. Lobas1.67118961
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