TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Marchlewski vs Mateusz Misiak 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611211––––
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Mateusz Misiak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 50 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 61.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 5–6 Mateusz Misiak Marcin Marchlewski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3061.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1554 vs Misiak 1272
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 282 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Misiak 0%
Marchlewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 60% vs Misiak 0%
Marchlewski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Misiak -10
Misiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Marchlewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.571 / Misiak 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Marchlewski)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232603
Marchlewski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 86 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 67 of 82
Misiak2.25
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 10
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back14% 19 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayMisiak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMisiak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski6Misiak4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski1Misiak9n = 10Misiak took 9 of 10
S3Marchlewski3Misiak7n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S4Marchlewski3Misiak3n = 6split evenly
S5Marchlewski3Misiak0n = 3Marchlewski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiMisiakMarchlewski − MisiakBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.037.1−3.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 938 vs 987 / 187048.4%52.8%454 / 938 vs 987 / 1870Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.57/Misiak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Misiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 03:45M. Marchlewski43111011113M. Misiak32812661
WJun 6 · 03:30M. Marchlewski40111116113M. Misiak4186111152
LNov 9 · 13:45M. Marchlewski206770M. Misiak331111113
WJul 12 · 09:30M. Marchlewski4111811113M. Misiak29411861
LJul 6 · 01:05M. Marchlewski381191081M. Misiak4391112113
LJul 5 · 22:40M. Marchlewski208840M. Misiak331111113
LMay 18 · 01:30M. Marchlewski219750M. Misiak331111113
LMay 17 · 23:00M. Marchlewski209740M. Misiak331111113
WApr 19 · 11:05M. Marchlewski52169114123M. Misiak551411911102
WFeb 1 · 18:55M. Marchlewski45119311113M. Misiak3941111762
M. Marchlewski10
LOct 3 · 12:55M. Marchlewski1.67891161B. Mleczko2.1011117113WOct 3 · 11:40M. Marchlewski1.281111113A. Myszewski3.509550WOct 3 · 10:00M. Marchlewski1.25812611113I. Dabrowski3.75111011672LOct 3 · 09:00M. Marchlewski1.50812111142A. Linek2.501110136113LOct 3 · 07:45K. Kufel2.1010111011113M. Marchlewski1.6712812822WOct 3 · 06:55I. Dabrowski3.75114561M. Marchlewski1.2581111113WOct 3 · 06:05M. Marchlewski1.807111111113B. Mleczko1.9111441362WOct 3 · 04:30M. Marchlewski1.4011118113A. Linek2.75961181WOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 12 · 23:20T. Filbrandt1.9161111113M. Marchlewski1.80118581
M. Misiak10
LOct 3 · 13:20M. Misiak1.8361370A. Linek1.831115113LOct 3 · 12:05B. Mleczko1.9111111111113M. Misiak1.8091371362LOct 3 · 10:50A. Myszewski1.6711116113M. Misiak2.10551161LOct 3 · 09:20I. Dabrowski2.10119116113M. Misiak1.6781161192LOct 3 · 08:05M. Misiak1.838690A. Linek1.831111113LOct 3 · 06:30K. Kufel1.5711411113M. Misiak2.25411651LOct 3 · 05:40I. Dabrowski1.91611911113M. Misiak1.8011611762LOct 3 · 04:55M. Misiak1.83113541B. Mleczko1.8391111113LOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 26 · 14:40B. Wisniewski2.25111115113M. Misiak1.557131391
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