TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Alex Moreno vs Kirill Fadeev 1-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115811911111––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched: 89.0% is still 89.0%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
89.0%
89.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 67 set 4, 1-11 · our read held Kirill Fadeev at 89.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 0–2 Kirill Fadeev Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5989.0%Our read95.2%to break even at 1.05
short by 6.2pp95.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.05 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1171 vs Fadeev 1718
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 547 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 40% vs Fadeev 60%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 20% vs Fadeev 80%
Fadeev
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -1 · Fadeev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Fadeev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 8.50 / Fadeev 1.05
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Fadeev)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13229795
Moreno8.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog15% won 10 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back2% 1 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Fadeev1.05
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 54 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMoreno0wins
AwayFadeev2wins
Fadeev leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMorenoFadeevM − FBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match31.041.5−10.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 139 vs 106 / 15714.4%67.5%20 / 139 vs 106 / 157Avg sets wonper match0.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match28.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevMoreno 8.50/Fadeev 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LApr 6 · 09:00A. Moreno331161061K. Fadeev4171112113
LFeb 3 · 07:30A. Moreno29117831K. Fadeev4291111113
A. Moreno10
LSep 29 · 07:00R. Albuquerque1.081111113A. Moreno7.005980WSep 28 · 17:30S. Happek1.30711691A. Moreno3.4011911113LSep 28 · 14:30I. Bertrand1.0111115113A. Moreno15.00541161WSep 28 · 13:00K. Waltl1.73146571A. Moreno2.00121111113LSep 28 · 11:00O. Naplokov1.3311119123A. Moreno3.258811101LSep 28 · 10:00M. Stefanidis1.4281111113A. Moreno2.60115691LSep 28 · 06:30R. Turrini1.011111113A. Moreno15.005280LSep 22 · 08:00A. Moreno10.50510120R. Turrini1.021112143LSep 21 · 17:00A. Moreno2.105490C. Schmitt1.671111113LSep 21 · 15:00A. Moreno3.771171091M. Stefanidis1.2391112113
K. Fadeev10
LSep 25 · 11:00M. Stefanidis2.151112113K. Fadeev1.6331080WSep 25 · 09:43K. Fadeev1.611111193D. Zech2.2041170WSep 25 · 06:30D. Lindso3.25811621K. Fadeev1.3311511113WSep 24 · 16:30D. Zech7.005560K. Fadeev1.081111113LSep 24 · 15:00M. Scharrer3.251111143K. Fadeev1.3374120WSep 24 · 13:30K. Fadeev1.531113113O. Naplokov2.3881180WSep 24 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.201111113L. Kraus4.335250WSep 24 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.201111113N. Kizakisz3.805990WSep 24 · 08:00M. Stefanidis2.0911341162K. Fadeev1.67911116113WSep 8 · 10:39K. Fadeev3.401111126113R. Turrini1.30134101192
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