TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Damian Zech vs Kirill Fadeev 0-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 24Finished
Damian Zech
Home
7.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511611––––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.08
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 89.9% is still 89.9%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
89.9%
89.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 49 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 89.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 0–8 Kirill Fadeev Damian Zech has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:31What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Fadeev
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1493 vs Fadeev 1733
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 240 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 100% vs Fadeev 80%
Zech
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 60% vs Fadeev 80%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +5 · Fadeev -1
Zech
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Fadeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (80%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 7.00 / Fadeev 1.08
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Fadeev)+3.4pp
Challenger Series TT · #13185672
Zech7.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog21% won 17 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Fadeev1.08
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 53 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZech0wins
AwayFadeev8wins
1 of 8 to a deciderFadeev leads 8–0, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZech0%0 of 3
AwayFadeev100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech3Fadeev5n = 8Fadeev took 5 of 8
S2Zech1Fadeev7n = 8Fadeev took 7 of 8
S3Zech0Fadeev8n = 8Fadeev took 8 of 8
S4Zech1Fadeev3n = 4Fadeev took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricZechFadeevZ − FBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match28.037.9−9.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 217 vs 106 / 15729%67.5%63 / 217 vs 106 / 157Avg sets wonper match1.42.4per matchAvg pointsper match33.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevZech 7.00/Fadeev 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 6 · 10:30D. Zech2410680K. Fadeev341211113
LJun 25 · 15:30D. Zech2561090K. Fadeev341112113
LJul 4 · 09:45D. Zech195590K. Fadeev331111113
LJul 3 · 12:30D. Zech521191011112K. Fadeev46411126133
LMay 15 · 13:00D. Zech25116261K. Fadeev4181111113
LApr 21 · 14:30D. Zech135260K. Fadeev331111113
LApr 17 · 16:30D. Zech36911881K. Fadeev4111811113
LJan 9 · 10:00D. Zech30117751K. Fadeev4181111113
D. Zech10
WSep 24 · 14:30D. Zech1.5311611113N. Kizakisz2.35811551WSep 24 · 12:30D. Lindso1.1041181172D. Zech6.50117111113WSep 24 · 10:30M. Scharrer1.07118781D. Zech7.5091111113WSep 24 · 09:00D. Zech4.3312711113O. Naplokov1.201011381WSep 24 · 07:30D. Zech2.63711119123L. Kraus1.44119711102LSep 18 · 07:30D. Zech2.754640J. Loffler1.371111113LSep 17 · 16:30D. Zech6.00101090L. Qiu1.111212113LSep 17 · 14:30D. Zech7.0011490M. Scharrer1.081311113WSep 17 · 12:30E. Mendes1.1055111192D. Zech6.50111169113LSep 17 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.051111113D. Zech8.505950
K. Fadeev10
LSep 24 · 15:00M. Scharrer3.251111143K. Fadeev1.3374120WSep 24 · 13:30K. Fadeev1.531113113O. Naplokov2.3881180WSep 24 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.201111113L. Kraus4.335250WSep 24 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.201111113N. Kizakisz3.805990WSep 24 · 08:00M. Stefanidis2.0911341162K. Fadeev1.67911116113WSep 8 · 10:39K. Fadeev3.401111126113R. Turrini1.30134101192LSep 8 · 09:15K. Fadeev1.25117117122V. Senkbeil3.75911611143WSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 15:00M. Stefanidis—761171K. Fadeev—11117113
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