TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Karol Sulkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111129111151012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:04 and never touched: 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
7111129111151012
H2H Rafal Stapor 13–14 Karol Sulkowski Rafal Stapor has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0470.1%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
clears by 8.8pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1426 vs Sulkowski 1281
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 60% vs Sulkowski 20%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 50% vs Sulkowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +3 · Sulkowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.63 / Sulkowski 2.16
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Stapor)+8.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13220690
Stapor1.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 372 of 600
Up 2–0, closes it96% 192 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it80% 288 of 361
Sulkowski2.16
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 131 of 368
Down 0–1, comes back16% 35 of 222
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwaySulkowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor66.7%4 of 6
AwaySulkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor6Sulkowski4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Stapor5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Stapor5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor4Sulkowski3n = 7Stapor took 4 of 7
S5Stapor1Sulkowski2n = 3Sulkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporSulkowskiStapor − SulkowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.1+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime707 / 1251 vs 634 / 128556.5%49.3%707 / 1251 vs 634 / 1285Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.63/Sulkowski 2.16
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.1%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:30R. Stapor206860K. Sulkowski331111113
WAug 11 · 08:35R. Stapor341211113K. Sulkowski2210660
LAug 10 · 06:30R. Stapor4111961142K. Sulkowski41311115113
WJul 26 · 00:10R. Stapor43111011113K. Sulkowski32812661
WJul 25 · 21:45R. Stapor485111011113K. Sulkowski4111912452
LJul 15 · 05:15R. Stapor408711141K. Sulkowski4711119163
LJul 15 · 03:00R. Stapor32119841K. Sulkowski4181111113
WJul 14 · 09:25R. Stapor331111113K. Sulkowski177550
LJul 13 · 13:30R. Stapor4581111782K. Sulkowski49117911113
WJul 12 · 13:25R. Stapor4111145113K. Sulkowski386121191
R. Stapor10
LSep 30 · 10:10R. Stapor1.6011128111M. Zwolinski2.15131011133LSep 30 · 09:00R. Stapor2.01711731M. Minda1.6311411113WSep 30 · 06:30B. Warpas2.6441321182R. Stapor1.431111117113WSep 30 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.40116581R. Stapor1.4791111113WSep 30 · 04:55R. Stapor2.351311113M. Kukawka1.5311640LSep 30 · 03:50R. Stapor1.46118861M. Lukaszewski2.5091111113LSep 28 · 08:10R. Stapor2.308990M. Kukawka1.521111113LSep 28 · 06:30M. Trela1.901311113R. Stapor1.8111970WSep 28 · 05:40J. Zochniak1.491161191R. Stapor2.5013117113WSep 28 · 05:00R. Stapor1.471111113B. Warpas2.509350
K. Sulkowski10
LSep 30 · 07:20M. Kukawka1.371111113K. Sulkowski2.808770LSep 30 · 05:15B. Warpas1.981111113K. Sulkowski1.756580LSep 30 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski2.10111178113K. Sulkowski1.6568111172WSep 30 · 03:00M. Zwolinski2.0591190K. Sulkowski1.651113113LSep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.3011611113K. Sulkowski1.55711271LSep 11 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.85511611113K. Sulkowski1.8011311752WSep 11 · 22:15K. Sulkowski1.851111123W. Gluszek1.8567100LSep 11 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski2.151111113K. Sulkowski1.617880WSep 11 · 20:30K. Sulkowski1.52101112163K. Marchlewski2.3012810141WSep 11 · 18:55K. Sulkowski1.801111113P. Strus1.908760
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