TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Abraham vs Karel Polak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePetr Abraham to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Petr Abraham @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingPetr Abraham above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Petr Abraham at 56.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Petr Abraham 2–2 Karel Polak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Abraham
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abraham 1453 vs Polak 1356
Abraham
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abraham 40% vs Polak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abraham 40% vs Polak 20%
Abraham
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abraham -1 · Polak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Abraham) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abraham form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbraham 1.73 / Polak 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Abraham)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13213255
Abraham1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 51 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it82% 40 of 49
Polak2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog58% won 36 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAbraham2wins
AwayPolak2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abraham2Polak2n = 4split evenly
S2Abraham3Polak1n = 4Abraham took 3 of 4
S3Abraham1Polak3n = 4Polak took 3 of 4
S4Abraham2Polak1n = 3Abraham took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAbrahamPolakA − PBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.539.0+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbrahamPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 393 vs 166 / 33850.6%49.1%199 / 393 vs 166 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AbrahamAbraham 1.73/Polak 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Abraham · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr Abraham @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–0
Abraham won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 24 · 13:30P. Abraham36118981K. Polak4181111113
WMay 9 · 13:30P. Abraham569131111123K. Polak491111134102
WApr 19 · 16:34P. Abraham331111113K. Polak166370
LApr 19 · 15:30P. Abraham49811811112K. Polak50118117133
P. Abraham10
LSep 29 · 14:30K. Farsky1.501111113P. Abraham2.509750WSep 29 · 14:00L. Tuma1.67135391P. Abraham2.10111111113WSep 24 · 16:28L. Tuma1.579101191P. Abraham2.2511126113LSep 24 · 15:30P. Abraham2.208111061L. Tuma1.6111912113LSep 24 · 14:30P. Abraham2.50671116122K. Farsky1.501111414143LSep 24 · 13:30P. Abraham1.53118981K. Polak2.3881111113WSep 15 · 16:33T. Stejskal1.807690P. Abraham1.911111113LSep 15 · 15:30P. Abraham2.101154111L. Tuma1.6791111133LSep 15 · 14:30P. Abraham2.2012460M. Soukup1.611411113WSep 15 · 13:30P. Abraham2.0071311133T. Stejskal1.7311119111
K. Polak10
LSep 29 · 15:00L. Tuma1.808111111113K. Polak1.9111681362LSep 29 · 13:30K. Farsky1.36111311113K. Polak3.001311791WSep 28 · 16:29K. Polak2.001112113J. Pina1.7351070LSep 28 · 15:30J. Pina1.8311125113K. Polak1.838101141WSep 28 · 15:00K. Polak1.911111113J. Mejzlik1.808550LSep 28 · 14:00K. Polak2.2511761192P. Fiser1.57811117113LSep 25 · 16:59M. Melisek1.731111113K. Polak2.006770LSep 25 · 16:00K. Polak1.67134881M. Melisek2.10111111113LSep 25 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.67111182K. Polak2.103780WSep 24 · 13:30P. Abraham1.53118981K. Polak2.3881111113
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