TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Urbaniec vs Ondrej Cmerda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181191012118––
Ondrej Cmerda
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Cmerda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Ondrej Cmerda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ondrej Cmerda at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 9–17 Ondrej Cmerda Radim Urbaniec has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 17:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cmerda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Cmerda
Wrong
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1768 vs Cmerda 1702
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 40% vs Cmerda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 60% vs Cmerda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec +2 · Cmerda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmerda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmerda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.00 / Cmerda 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Urbaniec)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13206943
Urbaniec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 463
Down 0–1, comes back23% 60 of 262
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 145
Cmerda1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 25 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 18 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec4wins
AwayCmerda6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCmerda leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec60%3 of 5
AwayCmerda80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec5Cmerda5n = 10split evenly
S2Urbaniec6Cmerda4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S3Urbaniec6Cmerda4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S4Urbaniec1Cmerda6n = 7Cmerda took 6 of 7
S5Urbaniec2Cmerda3n = 5Cmerda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecCmerdaU − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.041.0−1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecCmerdaBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1315 vs 182 / 34951.1%52.2%672 / 1315 vs 182 / 349Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 2.00/Cmerda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cmerda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 21:30R. Urbaniec51812119113O. Cmerda47111091162
LSep 22 · 20:00R. Urbaniec4591111772O. Cmerda47115911113
WSep 18 · 16:30R. Urbaniec351311113O. Cmerda2211560
LJun 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec207850O. Cmerda331111113
WMay 26 · 21:30R. Urbaniec561114119113O. Cmerda4791651162
LMay 26 · 18:30R. Urbaniec4611911962O. Cmerda47711711113
LMay 26 · 16:00R. Urbaniec33514861O. Cmerda45111211113
WMay 11 · 18:30R. Urbaniec371211143O. Cmerda27105120
LMay 7 · 03:00R. Urbaniec47131181232O. Cmerda531561110113
LMay 7 · 01:30R. Urbaniec30116491O. Cmerda4291111113
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 28 · 13:00F. Pusch2.101212861R. Urbaniec1.67141011113WSep 28 · 12:30R. Urbaniec2.20831113113R. Rose1.61111181162LSep 28 · 11:00R. Urbaniec2.63116691J. Ruzicka1.4481111113LSep 28 · 10:00F. Pusch2.3811912113R. Urbaniec1.538111011LSep 27 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.20310131192J. Mecl Jr1.601112116113LSep 27 · 20:30J. Mecl Jr1.531211119113R. Urbaniec2.3814381162WSep 27 · 19:30R. Urbaniec1.731111113F. Pusch2.004890WSep 27 · 18:30O. Svacha2.20511971R. Urbaniec1.6111511113WSep 27 · 17:30R. Urbaniec2.021111113F. Pusch1.703560WSep 27 · 16:30J. Mecl Jr1.53141011792R. Urbaniec2.381212411113
O. Cmerda10
LSep 22 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.10812119113O. Cmerda1.65111091162WSep 22 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.9191111772O. Cmerda1.80115911113WSep 22 · 19:00P. Saleny1.838111191O. Cmerda1.8311138113LSep 22 · 18:30O. Cmerda1.6141151272V. Nohejl2.201191110113LSep 19 · 13:30F. Pusch1.91111211113O. Cmerda1.807101371WSep 19 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73561171O. Cmerda2.0011118113WSep 19 · 11:30O. Cmerda2.1061111133M. Wagner1.671196111LSep 19 · 10:30P. Saleny2.0091111113O. Cmerda1.73116871WSep 19 · 08:59O. Cmerda1.731111113P. Saleny2.009970LSep 19 · 08:30J. Tazler2.1011913113O. Cmerda1.678111171
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
Sep 28 · 19:30R. Urbaniec1.44M. Skakal2.63—Sep 28 · 20:00R. Urbaniec2.25V. Nohejl1.57—Sep 29 · 10:30R. Urbaniec2.63J. Ruzicka1.44—Sep 29 · 11:00R. Urbaniec1.61F. Pusch2.20—Sep 29 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.91O. Kolisnyk1.80—Sep 29 · 14:30R. Urbaniec1.61F. Pusch2.20—Sep 29 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.63J. Ruzicka1.44—Sep 29 · 16:00R. Urbaniec1.57O. Svacha2.25—
O. Cmerda
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