TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Juszczyk vs Oliwier Sokolowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
101211811131171210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Juszczyk to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Juszczyk above · Oliwier Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Krzysztof Juszczyk at 63.2%
103 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Krzysztof Juszczyk 6–7 Oliwier Sokolowski Krzysztof Juszczyk has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Juszczyk beat Sokolowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Juszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juszczyk 1401 vs Sokolowski 1322
Juszczyk
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juszczyk 40% vs Sokolowski 60%
Sokolowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juszczyk 50% vs Sokolowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Juszczyk -3 · Sokolowski -2
Juszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Juszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuszczyk 1.40 / Sokolowski 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Juszczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13194257
Juszczyk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 199 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it95% 115 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 200
Sokolowski2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 119 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJuszczyk5wins
AwaySokolowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuszczyk66.7%4 of 6
AwaySokolowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juszczyk6Sokolowski4n = 10Juszczyk took 6 of 10
S2Juszczyk5Sokolowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Juszczyk6Sokolowski4n = 10Juszczyk took 6 of 10
S4Juszczyk1Sokolowski3n = 4Sokolowski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJuszczykSokolowskiJ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.530.5+3.0per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuszczykSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 1220 vs 257 / 59154.3%43.5%663 / 1220 vs 257 / 591Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuszczykJuszczyk 1.40/Sokolowski 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Juszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Juszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 16:15K. Juszczyk331111113O. Sokolowski145540
WSep 19 · 01:10K. Juszczyk331111113O. Sokolowski102440
LSep 18 · 17:30K. Juszczyk378117111O. Sokolowski4211711133
LJul 27 · 11:25K. Juszczyk2569100O. Sokolowski341111123
WJul 27 · 05:15K. Juszczyk43641111113O. Sokolowski3911118362
LJun 20 · 08:00K. Juszczyk199730O. Sokolowski331111113
WJun 13 · 04:25K. Juszczyk331111113O. Sokolowski217590
LJun 6 · 04:25K. Juszczyk4211611592O. Sokolowski47711711113
WMay 31 · 07:10K. Juszczyk351111133O. Sokolowski2669110
LMay 23 · 06:00K. Juszczyk351171071O. Sokolowski3951112113
K. Juszczyk10
LSep 26 · 00:35K. Juszczyk1.83611461R. Szymik1.8311911113LSep 25 · 23:20K. Juszczyk1.678870L. Oracz2.101111113LSep 25 · 22:10O. Vincenec2.251111113K. Juszczyk1.578780WSep 25 · 21:20K. Juszczyk1.73199117123M. Baron2.001711811102WSep 25 · 19:40K. Juszczyk1.4441311113W. Jozala2.631111561WSep 25 · 18:30K. Juszczyk1.6711129113M. Baron2.109101181LSep 25 · 17:20K. Juszczyk1.50118561L. Oracz2.5051111113WSep 25 · 16:15O. Sokolowski2.385540K. Juszczyk1.531111113WSep 25 · 15:25K. Juszczyk1.801711113O. Vincenec1.9115260LSep 24 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.8011115113K. Juszczyk1.90911161
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 26 · 01:00O. Vincenec1.83111311123O. Sokolowski1.8313117101LSep 26 · 00:10O. Sokolowski1.80611671M. Baron1.9111611113WSep 25 · 22:35O. Sokolowski2.63611116113L. Oracz1.4411691192WSep 25 · 21:45R. Szymik1.80111190O. Sokolowski1.911313113WSep 25 · 20:30O. Sokolowski1.8311125163O. Vincenec1.8351011141WSep 25 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.5091111113W. Jozala2.50119471WSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872LSep 25 · 16:15O. Sokolowski2.385540K. Juszczyk1.531111113LSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.751091171L. Oracz1.4012117113LSep 24 · 08:20A. Burkacki2.051091211113O. Sokolowski1.65121110832
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