TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Mariusz Adamus 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13119111210118––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
13119111210118––
H2H Marek Tkocz 30–19 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 19 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:04What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-19 in 49
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 11 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1496 vs Adamus 1338
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Adamus 20%
Tkocz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 90% vs Adamus 30%
Tkocz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +2 · Adamus -3
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.55 / Adamus 2.30
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Tkocz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13189992
Tkocz1.55
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 290 of 431
Up 2–0, closes it95% 164 of 173
Up 1–0, closes it85% 239 of 281
Adamus2.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 179 of 422
Down 0–1, comes back21% 47 of 220
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkocz7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz85.7%6 of 7
AwayAdamus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz7Adamus3n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Tkocz7Adamus3n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S3Tkocz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Tkocz4Adamus3n = 7Tkocz took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkoczAdamusT − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.3+4.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime787 / 1183 vs 798 / 162966.5%49%787 / 1183 vs 798 / 1629Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.55/Adamus 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 02:20M. Tkocz4111118113M. Adamus29661161
LSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz34118871M. Adamus4181111113
WAug 21 · 24:45M. Tkocz4111118113M. Adamus28381161
LAug 20 · 17:10M. Tkocz185850M. Adamus331111113
LAug 18 · 20:45M. Tkocz399128101M. Adamus44111011123
WJul 31 · 08:30M. Tkocz507111110113M. Adamus4511851292
WJul 8 · 06:45M. Tkocz3711114113M. Adamus31971141
WJun 16 · 21:35M. Tkocz331111113M. Adamus175480
WJun 16 · 18:25M. Tkocz331111113M. Adamus187920
WJun 4 · 20:00M. Tkocz44111111113M. Adamus37813881
M. Tkocz10
LSep 24 · 18:00G. Jurowicz2.431111113M. Tkocz1.507890WSep 24 · 16:00M. Tkocz3.001511113P. Gasiorski1.3313480WSep 23 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.801111113P. Kurek1.905570LSep 23 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.75711941M. Sikon1.9511611113WSep 22 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.571411113M. Paszkiewicz2.2512840WSep 22 · 22:25P. Adamus1.751110231M. Tkocz1.9551211113WSep 22 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.80111176113M. Lebek1.9098111192WSep 22 · 20:00M. Tkocz1.101111113K. Kowalski4.502450WSep 22 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.57611611113R. Gajda2.2011611942WSep 22 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.7511911113P. Kaczynski1.95611881
M. Adamus10
LSep 24 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.681211113M. Adamus2.0510850LSep 23 · 20:20S. Krupa1.7211911113M. Adamus1.83611891LSep 23 · 19:35K. Hetnar1.6571111123M. Adamus2.101159101WSep 23 · 17:35K. Juszczyk1.857670M. Adamus1.851111113LSep 23 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.601116133M. Adamus2.15714110LSep 23 · 15:10R. Wiza2.4051111113M. Adamus1.50115961LSep 23 · 02:10G. Jurowicz2.3811911113M. Adamus1.53711791WSep 23 · 01:25L. Oracz1.619370M. Adamus2.201111113WSep 22 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.577640M. Adamus2.251111113LSep 22 · 22:35G. Marud2.001111113M. Adamus1.733980
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