TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adam Staniczek vs Zbigniew Nocun 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111214511––––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Staniczek above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 75.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Adam Staniczek 10–43 Zbigniew Nocun Adam Staniczek has won 10 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-43 in 53
Nocun
Correct
gap of 33 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1236 vs Nocun 1450
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 60% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 30% vs Nocun 70%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek +2 · Nocun +3
Nocun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Nocun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 3.25 / Nocun 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13182484
Staniczek3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog25% won 116 of 466
Down 0–1, comes back11% 33 of 301
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 226
Nocun1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it85% 235 of 277
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaniczek2wins
AwayNocun8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNocun87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S2Staniczek3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Staniczek4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Staniczek1Nocun4n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaniczekNocunS − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.937.6−4.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 1007 vs 689 / 115336.5%59.8%368 / 1007 vs 689 / 1153Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunStaniczek 3.25/Nocun 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 01:30A. Staniczek418119131Z. Nocun4611911153
LSep 16 · 19:30A. Staniczek134540Z. Nocun331111113
WSep 10 · 22:55A. Staniczek45811112133Z. Nocun48117811112
LSep 10 · 16:55A. Staniczek239680Z. Nocun331111113
LSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek49881112102Z. Nocun471111310123
LSep 9 · 18:20A. Staniczek31671171Z. Nocun3511112113
LSep 4 · 01:30A. Staniczek3012990Z. Nocun361411113
LSep 3 · 19:30A. Staniczek431287161Z. Nocun50101111183
LSep 3 · 05:05A. Staniczek217860Z. Nocun331111113
WSep 2 · 20:45A. Staniczek331111113Z. Nocun153750
A. Staniczek10
WSep 23 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.009790A. Staniczek1.731111113WSep 23 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.3311571542A. Staniczek3.257111113113LSep 23 · 16:55A. Staniczek3.00121340A. Kubiak1.361415113LSep 23 · 15:50A. Staniczek2.20109100A. Skupinski1.611211123WSep 22 · 02:45M. Machelski1.903890A. Staniczek1.801111113LSep 22 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.75111180A. Kubiak1.401313113LSep 22 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.2611914113A. Staniczek3.504111261LSep 21 · 23:10J. Michalik1.5411119123A. Staniczek2.254411101LSep 21 · 21:35J. Cyndera1.42111111113A. Staniczek2.60771321LSep 21 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.271111113A. Staniczek3.306540
Z. Nocun10
WSep 23 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.2511810131Z. Nocun1.5781112153WSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak1.8311101161Z. Nocun1.8313128113WSep 23 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.251061161Z. Nocun1.5712116113WSep 23 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.6348121152Z. Nocun1.441111104113LSep 23 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.10111188113Z. Nocun1.6799111192WSep 21 · 02:35Z. Nocun1.67711148113G. Mucha2.10119121132LSep 21 · 01:00Z. Nocun6.5061170M. Guzik1.101113113WSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.2241412113K. Rybak4.0011121081LSep 20 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.61812111492J. Skorupa2.201110816113
Upcoming Matches
A. Staniczek
Sep 23 · 22:55A. Staniczek3.40A. Kubiak1.30—Sep 23 · 23:45A. Staniczek2.75J. Skorupa1.40—Sep 24 · 24:35A. Staniczek1.83K. Delikatny1.83—Sep 24 · 02:10A. Staniczek3.25Z. Nocun1.33—Sep 24 · 18:20A. Staniczek—D. Molenda——Sep 24 · 19:30A. Staniczek—G. Mucha——Sep 24 · 20:20A. Staniczek—M. Baran——Sep 24 · 21:05A. Staniczek—Z. Nocun——Sep 24 · 22:40A. Staniczek—M. Lewczuk——Sep 25 · 24:20A. Staniczek—M. Baran——
Z. Nocun
Sep 23 · 22:35Z. Nocun1.61M. Lewczuk2.20—Sep 23 · 23:20Z. Nocun1.53K. Delikatny2.38—Sep 24 · 01:25Z. Nocun1.83A. Kubiak1.83—Sep 24 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.33A. Staniczek3.25—Sep 24 · 17:55Z. Nocun—G. Mucha——Sep 24 · 18:45Z. Nocun—M. Baran——Sep 24 · 19:55Z. Nocun—M. Lewczuk——Sep 24 · 21:05Z. Nocun—A. Staniczek——Sep 24 · 22:20Z. Nocun—D. Molenda——Sep 24 · 23:55Z. Nocun—G. Mucha——
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