TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191412811113
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 97 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 58.7%
97 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 11–6 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Nocun beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Nocun
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1428 vs Mucha 1356
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Mucha 40%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 60% vs Mucha 30%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -1 · Mucha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.67 / Mucha 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Nocun)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13160169
Nocun1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 490
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it85% 235 of 278
Mucha2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwayMucha4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun55.6%5 of 9
AwayMuchan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun9Mucha1n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S2Nocun7Mucha3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun3Mucha7n = 10Mucha took 7 of 10
S4Nocun6Mucha3n = 9Nocun took 6 of 9
S5Nocun1Mucha4n = 5Mucha took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunMuchaN − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.6+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime685 / 1148 vs 155 / 31159.7%49.8%685 / 1148 vs 155 / 311Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.67/Mucha 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun3811115113G. Mucha37981191
WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun4013115113G. Mucha371171181
LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun45123711122G. Mucha551011119143
WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun381111163G. Mucha2446140
LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun4511116892G. Mucha44831111113
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun4211115962G. Mucha46581111113
LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun50121171192G. Mucha531081113113
WAug 12 · 21:20Z. Nocun49116813113G. Mucha47911111152
WAug 12 · 15:25Z. Nocun4111811113G. Mucha30411691
WAug 2 · 21:45Z. Nocun4071111113G. Mucha33119671
Z. Nocun10
LSep 21 · 01:00Z. Nocun6.5061170M. Guzik1.101113113WSep 20 · 23:45Z. Nocun2.25127115113A. Zmijewski1.57101181172WSep 20 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.2241412113K. Rybak4.0011121081LSep 20 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.61812111492J. Skorupa2.201110816113WSep 20 · 19:40K. Rybak3.75511471Z. Nocun1.2511811113LSep 20 · 18:55M. Guzik1.201111113Z. Nocun4.337440WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.6711115113G. Mucha2.10981191WSep 20 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.61111111113J. Skorupa2.20513551LSep 20 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.57116811113Z. Nocun2.2531111672WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181
G. Mucha10
WSep 21 · 01:25G. Mucha1.6112811113J. Skorupa2.201011861LSep 21 · 24:10M. Guzik1.17611711113G. Mucha4.5011411892LSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151WSep 20 · 21:20K. Rybak4.5012490G. Mucha1.171411113LSep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.1711111110113G. Mucha4.5091321292LSep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha1.5311711872J. Skorupa2.38911811113LSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.6711115113G. Mucha2.10981191LSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790WSep 20 · 15:25K. Rybak4.50811101192G. Mucha1.17119127113LSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181
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