TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Szymon Kolasa 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41112101145111311
Szymon Kolasa
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 92 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 60.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 21–17 Szymon Kolasa Szymon Kolasa has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Grela beat Kolasa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:43What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Grela
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1917 vs Kolasa 1835
Grela
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Kolasa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 40% vs Kolasa 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Kolasa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.73 / Kolasa 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Grela)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13177370
Grela1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 158 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it76% 106 of 140
Kolasa2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 55 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back32% 28 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela5wins
AwayKolasa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela66.7%4 of 6
AwayKolasa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6Kolasa4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela6Kolasa4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S3Grela3Kolasa7n = 10Kolasa took 7 of 10
S4Grela6Kolasa4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S5Grela2Kolasa3n = 5Kolasa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaKolasaG − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.141.7−2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime626 / 1225 vs 261 / 48151.1%54.3%626 / 1225 vs 261 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.73/Kolasa 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 06:30A. Grela3311011113S. Kolasa32511971
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela4491111492S. Kolasa48117811113
LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela4281141182S. Kolasa46117116113
WAug 27 · 13:45A. Grela44511116113S. Kolasa4411791162
WAug 27 · 08:30A. Grela46117611113S. Kolasa4691111872
WAug 26 · 14:35A. Grela3811115113S. Kolasa35791181
LAug 26 · 06:30A. Grela31117761S. Kolasa4181111113
LJul 31 · 11:40A. Grela32911661S. Kolasa4011711113
LJul 31 · 03:25A. Grela4311881152S. Kolasa48911116113
WJul 30 · 10:00A. Grela3811124113S. Kolasa377101191
A. Grela10
WSep 23 · 12:55A. Grela1.4015149113K. Strowski2.7513121121LSep 23 · 11:40A. Grela1.73124491J. Zandecki2.00101111113LSep 23 · 10:00A. Grela2.201151111122J. Kosowski1.61811139143WSep 23 · 09:00A. Grela1.44111112113K. Kolodziej2.63431481LSep 23 · 08:05A. Grela1.4057111192J. Kuzmicz2.75111187113WSep 23 · 06:30S. Kolasa2.25511971A. Grela1.5711011113WSep 23 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.6781111952A. Grela2.10115711113LSep 23 · 04:55A. Grela1.7385111142J. Zandecki2.00111178113LSep 23 · 03:45A. Grela1.83126761M. Jadczyk1.83101111113LSep 18 · 15:00A. Grela2.3811712372J. Kosowski1.538111011113
S. Kolasa10
LSep 23 · 13:20S. Kolasa1.7351111632K. Kolodziej2.00115911113LSep 23 · 12:05K. Strowski2.10611126113S. Kolasa1.67116101182WSep 23 · 10:50J. Zandecki1.731012581S. Kolasa2.00121011113LSep 23 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6711117113S. Kolasa2.10971141WSep 23 · 07:45S. Kolasa2.20981111113M. Jadczyk1.6111117792LSep 23 · 06:30S. Kolasa2.25511971A. Grela1.5711011113LSep 23 · 05:15S. Kolasa1.83811991J. Kuzmicz1.8311711113LSep 23 · 04:10J. Kosowski1.73711119113S. Kolasa2.0011361132WSep 23 · 03:25S. Kolasa1.91713118113J. Zandecki1.80111181172LSep 7 · 13:45S. Kolasa3.251638101J. Folwarski1.33141111123
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Sep 24 · 03:25A. Grela1.44J. Kuzmicz2.63—Sep 24 · 04:55A. Grela1.91A. Abbasi1.80—Sep 24 · 06:05A. Grela2.20P. David1.61—Sep 24 · 07:20A. Grela1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 24 · 08:30A. Grela1.73S. Kolasa2.00—Sep 24 · 09:40A. Grela1.73S. Kolasa2.00—Sep 24 · 10:25A. Grela1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 24 · 12:05A. Grela1.44K. Kolodziej2.63—Sep 24 · 12:55A. Grela2.20P. David1.61—Sep 24 · 13:45A. Grela1.57A. Daniel2.25—
S. Kolasa
Sep 24 · 03:00S. Kolasa2.25J. Zandecki1.57—Sep 24 · 04:10S. Kolasa1.83J. Kuzmicz1.83—Sep 24 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.10A. Abbasi1.67—Sep 24 · 06:55S. Kolasa1.91P. David1.80—Sep 24 · 08:30S. Kolasa2.00A. Grela1.73—Sep 24 · 09:40S. Kolasa2.00A. Grela1.73—Sep 24 · 10:50S. Kolasa1.67K. Kolodziej2.10—Sep 24 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.91P. David1.80—Sep 24 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.73A. Daniel2.00—Sep 24 · 14:10S. Kolasa2.25J. Zandecki1.57—
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