TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155792
Played Sep 19Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115115––––
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 59.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 38–25 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 25 of their 63 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:57What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-25 in 63
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 13 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1815 vs Pohonov 1744
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 100% vs Pohonov 60%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 80% vs Pohonov 60%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +5 · Pohonov +1
Chaikovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.61 / Pohonov 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13155792
Chaikovskyi1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 92 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it77% 64 of 83
Pohonov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 41 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi7wins
AwayPohonov3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi80%4 of 5
AwayPohonov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S2Chaikovskyi5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S3Chaikovskyi6Pohonov4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi6Pohonov2n = 8Chaikovskyi took 6 of 8
S5Chaikovskyi2Pohonov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiPohonovC − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.936.8+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 774 vs 276 / 53451.8%51.7%401 / 774 vs 276 / 534Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.61/Pohonov 2.20
Hit
What we said
59.3%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 17 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi4211611143O. Pohonov398118121
WSep 16 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi4111117123O. Pohonov358611101
WSep 13 · 01:43B. Chaikovskyi43611114113O. Pohonov3611421182
LSep 12 · 22:45B. Chaikovskyi4311391192O. Pohonov44911112113
WSep 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi4291111113O. Pohonov27118531
LSep 8 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi2999110O. Pohonov351111133
WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi45551311113O. Pohonov46111111492
LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi41411511102O. Pohonov47118115123
WSep 2 · 13:35B. Chaikovskyi331111113O. Pohonov226790
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 20 · 24:45A. Romanenko2.2512950B. Chaikovskyi1.571411113WSep 19 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.677260B. Chaikovskyi2.101111113WSep 19 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.83811115113I. Sukovatyi1.8311891192WSep 17 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi1.6111611143O. Pohonov2.208118121WSep 17 · 09:35A. Romanenko2.25491131B. Chaikovskyi1.5711119113WSep 17 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.671011481B. Chaikovskyi2.1012511113LSep 17 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi1.911012871I. Sukovatyi1.80121011113LSep 17 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko2.2061111113B. Chaikovskyi1.61115971WSep 16 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.53931191B. Chaikovskyi2.3811119113WSep 16 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.6111811113G. Kuzmenko2.20911871
O. Pohonov10
WSep 20 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.6712118113V. Krokhmal2.101081181WSep 19 · 21:45A. Romanenko2.387129111O. Pohonov1.53111011133LSep 19 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.25112119113O. Pohonov1.5751161182LSep 17 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi1.6111611143O. Pohonov2.208118121WSep 17 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.361112212123I. Sukovatyi3.009101114102WSep 17 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4091111182O. Pohonov2.75111186113WSep 17 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.731110961O. Pohonov2.0081211113LSep 17 · 05:05A. Romanenko2.381713711113O. Pohonov1.53151511892WSep 16 · 18:35I. Sukovatyi2.758360O. Pohonov1.401111113WSep 16 · 17:35A. Romanenko2.25812118102O. Pohonov1.571110911123
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