TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13150104
Played Sep 18Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119114711811116
Oskar Jadach
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:18 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
119114711811116
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 21–12 Oskar Jadach Oskar Jadach has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Skotniczny beat Jadach 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:18What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Jadach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-12 in 33
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1483 vs Jadach 1477
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 100% vs Jadach 40%
Skotniczny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 90% vs Jadach 60%
Skotniczny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +6 · Jadach -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadach form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 2.10 / Jadach 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jadach)+1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13150104
Skotniczny2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 64 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Jadach1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 325 of 479
Up 2–0, closes it94% 153 of 162
Up 1–0, closes it86% 227 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwayJadach4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny75%6 of 8
AwayJadachn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny8Jadach2n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Jadach4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny3Jadach7n = 10Jadach took 7 of 10
S4Skotniczny6Jadach2n = 8Skotniczny took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyJadachS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.2+5.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyJadachBasisWin rate · lifetime603 / 1040 vs 798 / 131558%60.7%603 / 1040 vs 798 / 1315Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachSkotniczny 2.10/Jadach 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 12:20R. Skotniczny52131110992O. Jadach531181211113
WSep 3 · 08:20R. Skotniczny50111013163O. Jadach4361211141
LAug 27 · 14:20R. Skotniczny539111111112O. Jadach46114135133
WAug 27 · 06:20R. Skotniczny351113113O. Jadach2391130
WAug 3 · 14:20R. Skotniczny4011117113O. Jadach34681191
LAug 3 · 06:20R. Skotniczny30117661O. Jadach3961111113
WJul 17 · 14:20R. Skotniczny4211119113O. Jadach24151171
WJul 17 · 06:20R. Skotniczny4514911113O. Jadach371211771
LJul 10 · 12:45R. Skotniczny238960O. Jadach331111113
WJul 10 · 10:20R. Skotniczny44111111113O. Jadach30721381
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 18 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.54116611102M. Paszkiewicz2.25811116123WSep 18 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.42911117113W. Tobiasz2.6511861182WSep 18 · 09:05P. Slosarczyk2.953650R. Skotniczny1.331111113WSep 18 · 08:20O. Jadach1.8013590R. Skotniczny1.851511113WSep 18 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.5412115113M. Paszkiewicz2.251061191WSep 18 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.9511712113G. Wichowski1.747111091WSep 15 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.481111143K. Jablonski2.3474120LSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332WSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091
O. Jadach10
WSep 18 · 13:10O. Jadach1.4211611113W. Tobiasz2.55411671LSep 18 · 11:05O. Jadach1.50151111892M. Paszkiewicz2.40178211113LSep 18 · 09:30O. Jadach1.833880G. Wichowski1.871111113LSep 18 · 08:20O. Jadach1.8013590R. Skotniczny1.851511113WSep 18 · 06:45O. Jadach1.281111113P. Slosarczyk3.358670WSep 18 · 05:30O. Jadach1.4211117113W. Tobiasz2.60391161WSep 17 · 08:00O. Vincenec2.60143751O. Jadach1.39121111113WSep 17 · 07:10P. Adamus2.3614780O. Jadach1.481611113WSep 17 · 06:25O. Jadach1.2811611113O. Sokolowski3.40711681LSep 17 · 04:50O. Jadach1.756470M. Lebek1.901111113
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