TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Astana
Patrick Franziska vs Darius Movileanu 2-3 · WTT Star Contender Astana
WTT Star Contender Astana
Played Sep 18Finished
Patrick Franziska
Home
1.07
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
41111213111012511
Darius Movileanu
Away
7.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 84.4% is still 84.4%
Graded at full timePatrick Franziska to win
84.4%
84.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrick Franziska above · Darius Movileanu below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 5-9
Point 88 set 5, 5-9 — our read held Patrick Franziska at 84.4%
88 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Patrick Franziska 0–1 Darius Movileanu Patrick Franziska has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:58What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Franziska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Franziska 40% vs Movileanu 60%
Movileanu
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Franziska 50% vs Movileanu 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Franziska -3 · Movileanu +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Franziska) · live re-read · sealed at 84% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Movileanu form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFranziska 1.07 / Movileanu 7.50
Signal prob.88% / 13%
Edge (Franziska)-0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Astana · #13148083
Franziska1.07
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 09) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Movileanu7.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFranziska0wins
AwayMovileanu1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMovileanu leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFranziskaMovileanuF − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match43.047.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFranziskaMovileanuBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 6 / 1050%60%5 / 10 vs 6 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FranziskaFranziska 1.07/Movileanu 7.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
87.5%
Franziska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Movileanu won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 18 · 12:00P. Franziska43411131052D. Movileanu471121112113
P. Franziska10
LSep 9 · 12:15P. Franziska2.7511115992T. Moregard1.40581111113LAug 11 · 11:10T. Poret3.25821111113P. Franziska1.3311118592LJul 25 · 21:10P. Franziska1.915117101A. Lebrun1.8011811123WJul 25 · 14:35P. Franziska1.3381211113T. Poret3.251110791WJul 24 · 20:35P. Franziska1.021111113D. Fujii11.006840LJul 2 · 01:00P. Franziska2.38371111122W. Jang1.53111189143WJun 29 · 19:35T. Pucar3.4011101161P. Franziska1.3041213113LJun 20 · 10:10G. Kuo2.63111126113P. Franziska1.4457111142WJun 19 · 17:45L. Jancarik—1081131P. Franziska—12116113WJun 19 · 10:45L. Jancarik5.001081131P. Franziska1.1412116113
D. Movileanu10
LSep 19 · 06:10D. Movileanu3.50111670K. Jha1.281318113WSep 17 · 14:20D. Movileanu3.7511512113B. Fang1.259111061WSep 16 · 13:55D. Movileanu1.831111113G. Zhou1.839360WSep 16 · 06:00D. Movileanu1.731111113Y. Tang2.008550LAug 8 · 07:00T. Jarvis1.611111113D. Movileanu2.202390LJun 2 · 16:10C. Nuytinck1.361213143D. Movileanu3.001011120WJun 2 · 09:00D. Movileanu1.221111113A. Baggaley4.009870WJun 1 · 15:50D. Movileanu3.50121011113S. Aida1.281012571LMay 17 · 17:50G. Gomez3.7511911113D. Movileanu1.25911681LMay 12 · 08:00R. Yoshiyama1.221112113D. Movileanu4.0091030
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