TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126493
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Biolek
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191210––––
Jan Dzida
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Biolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Biolek above · Jan Dzida below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Martin Biolek at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Martin Biolek 48–55 Jan Dzida Martin Biolek has won 48 of their 103 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Biolek beat Dzida 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:11What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-55 in 103
Dzida
Wrong
gap of 7 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Biolek 1955 vs Dzida 1995
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Biolek 60% vs Dzida 40%
Biolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Biolek 60% vs Dzida 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Biolek +2 · Dzida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Biolek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBiolek 1.90 / Dzida 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Biolek)+5.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126493
Biolek1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 42 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back41% 14 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Dzida1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 133 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it74% 97 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBiolek5wins
AwayDzida5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBiolek66.7%4 of 6
AwayDzida75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Biolek6Dzida4n = 10Biolek took 6 of 10
S2Biolek4Dzida5n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S3Biolek4Dzida5n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S4Biolek4Dzida2n = 6Biolek took 4 of 6
S5Biolek1Dzida2n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBiolekDzidaB − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.732.70.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBiolekDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 403 vs 210 / 35555.6%59.2%224 / 403 vs 210 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BiolekBiolek 1.90/Dzida 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Biolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Biolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 19:00M. Biolek4011711113J. Dzida30211891
LSep 6 · 19:30M. Biolek34991151J. Dzida4111118113
WSep 1 · 14:00M. Biolek46811511113J. Dzida4411911762
WAug 25 · 17:00M. Biolek341211113J. Dzida1810440
LAug 25 · 14:00M. Biolek32116871J. Dzida3851111113
WAug 18 · 17:30M. Biolek223J. Dzida001
LAug 18 · 14:00M. Biolek4111551192J. Dzida49911117113
WAug 16 · 19:30M. Biolek331111113J. Dzida202990
LAug 13 · 14:00M. Biolek41212611102J. Dzida521110118123
LAug 11 · 14:00M. Biolek2411580J. Dzida351311113
M. Biolek10
WSep 13 · 20:00D. Opanasiuk1.83711861M. Biolek1.8311911113WSep 13 · 19:00J. Dzida1.80211891M. Biolek1.9111711113LSep 13 · 18:30M. Biolek1.5011911952T. Dousek2.50711811113WSep 10 · 16:59R. Polasek2.20611431M. Biolek1.6111911113LSep 10 · 16:00M. Biolek1.61951181M. Cabis2.2011116113WSep 10 · 15:30R. Polasek2.20311111152M. Biolek1.61118137113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Biolek1.50691361T. Dousek2.50111111113WSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950WSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dzida1.8011118113M. Biolek1.91991151
J. Dzida10
WSep 13 · 20:30J. Dzida1.401111123T. Dousek2.7558100LSep 13 · 19:00J. Dzida1.80211891M. Biolek1.9111711113WSep 13 · 18:00D. Opanasiuk1.7311911862J. Dzida2.00611911113LSep 12 · 20:59J. Dzida1.368980R. Polasek3.001111113LSep 12 · 20:00D. Opanasiuk1.7311129113J. Dzida2.005101181WSep 12 · 19:00M. Cabis2.3812671172J. Dzida1.531011119113WSep 12 · 18:30J. Dzida1.3611911113R. Polasek3.00711971WSep 6 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.6411621582J. Dzida2.019111911113LSep 6 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.8081212113J. Dzida1.9111101081WSep 6 · 19:30J. Dzida1.8011118113M. Biolek1.91991151
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