TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13096758
Played Sep 8Finished
Szymon Brud
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11510121181113711
Artur Sobel
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSzymon Brud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
11510121181113711
H2H Szymon Brud 9–14 Artur Sobel Szymon Brud has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sobel beat Brud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:50What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Sobel
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1500 vs Sobel 1547
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 60% vs Sobel 100%
Sobel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 60% vs Sobel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud -1 · Sobel +5
Sobel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 1.86 / Sobel 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobel)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13096758
Brud1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Sobel1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 176 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it76% 126 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrud3wins
AwaySobel7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrud28.6%2 of 7
AwaySobel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud7Sobel3n = 10Brud took 7 of 10
S2Brud4Sobel6n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S3Brud2Sobel8n = 10Sobel took 8 of 10
S4Brud4Sobel3n = 7Brud took 4 of 7
S5Brud1Sobel4n = 5Sobel took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrudSobelB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.641.1−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudSobelBasisWin rate · lifetime621 / 1201 vs 638 / 119051.7%53.6%621 / 1201 vs 638 / 1190Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelBrud 1.86/Sobel 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:50S. Brud—12116572A. Sobel—1071111113
WSep 7 · 14:40S. Brud—1091411113A. Sobel—121112742
LSep 1 · 09:50S. Brud—11135942A. Sobel—2111111113
WSep 1 · 08:30S. Brud—111110113A. Sobel—991251
LAug 18 · 13:30S. Brud—11512111A. Sobel—41114133
LAug 18 · 07:40S. Brud—12641152A. Sobel—1011118113
LAug 17 · 11:50S. Brud—139611102A. Sobel—1111117123
LAug 17 · 05:15S. Brud—71260A. Sobel—1114113
LAug 11 · 14:20S. Brud—98130A. Sobel—1111153
WAug 11 · 05:35S. Brud—1211113A. Sobel—10330
S. Brud10
LSep 8 · 14:40S. Brud1.60611961B. Sulkowski2.1511711113LSep 8 · 11:50S. Brud1.8098111142A. Lilien1.90111197113WSep 8 · 10:10S. Brud1.75619612143J. Glanowski1.9511171110122WSep 8 · 09:00S. Brud1.55111111113A. Myszewski2.25413681WSep 8 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.85891281S. Brud1.85111110113LSep 8 · 06:50A. Sobel1.861071111113S. Brud1.8012116572LSep 8 · 06:00S. Brud4.0010450M. Sklensky1.211211113WSep 8 · 04:25S. Brud1.85101111113A. Lilien1.85129681LSep 8 · 03:40M. Minda1.821111113S. Brud1.884840WSep 7 · 14:40A. Sobel1.77121112742S. Brud1.951091411113
A. Sobel10
WSep 8 · 13:55J. Glanowski2.01118911112A. Sobel1.66811118133WSep 8 · 12:15A. Sobel1.60111110113B. Sulkowski2.15961261WSep 8 · 10:35A. Sobel1.431111113A. Myszewski2.505890WSep 8 · 09:50A. Lilien2.00351391A. Sobel1.70111111113WSep 8 · 08:30A. Sobel3.50811811113M. Sklensky1.2511411592WSep 8 · 06:50A. Sobel1.861071111113S. Brud1.8012116572LSep 8 · 05:35A. Sobel1.801011891M. Minda1.8512211113LSep 8 · 04:00A. Sobel1.80114751B. Czerwinski1.9071111113LSep 8 · 03:00A. Sobel1.707101131A. Lilien1.9511127113LSep 7 · 14:40A. Sobel1.77121112742S. Brud1.951091411113
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