Tomas Trnka vs Lubomir Vana 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Trnka

Home

1.44

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 4

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

118511113113––

Lubomir Vana

Away

2.63

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Tomas Trnka to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Lubomir Vana below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 11-3

Set 4 · 11-3

Point 63 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Tomas Trnka at 54.0%

63 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Trnka 1–0 Lubomir Vana Lubomir Vana has won 0 of their 1 meetings.

Last 1 · 1–0Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Trnka

Trnka 1.44/Vana 2.63

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Trnka · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Trnka won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:40

54.0%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 15.3pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Trnka

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-0 in 1

—

Too close

1 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Trnka 1669 vs Vana 1488

Trnka

Correct

both rated, 181 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Trnka 80% vs Vana 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Trnka 80% vs Vana 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Trnka +4 · Vana +2

Trnka

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Vana: form 80%, the price implies 38%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsTrnka 1.444 / Vana 2.625

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Trnka)-15.3pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Trnka beat Vana 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 1 meeting

HomeTrnka1wins

AwayVana0wins

Trnka leads 1–0.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home1

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home0

2–3Decider, away0

1–3Four sets, away0

0–3Straight, away0

This 1 meeting

MetricTrnkaVanaT − VBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.014.0+19.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricTrnkaVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 311 vs 42 / 9153.1%46.2%165 / 311 vs 42 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match

TT Cup · #13285812

Trnka1.44

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite70% won 76 of 108

Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41

Up 1–0, closes it85% 57 of 67

Vana2.63

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Tomas Trnka vs Lubomir Vana 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Trnka vs Lubomir Vana 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.