Karel Schopf vs Adam Brazda 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Karel Schopf

Home

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

611118811119611

Adam Brazda

Away

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched: 57.9% is still 57.9%

Graded at full time

Adam Brazda to win

57.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingKarel Schopf above · Adam Brazda below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 92 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Adam Brazda at 57.9%

92 points played in total.

H2H Karel Schopf 4–8 Adam Brazda Karel Schopf has won 4 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Brazda

Schopf 2.25/Brazda 1.57

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

57.9%

Brazda · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Brazda won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:21

57.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57

short by 5.8pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Brazda

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-8 in 12

Brazda

Correct

gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Schopf 1583 vs Brazda 1604

Brazda

Correct

both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Schopf 40% vs Brazda 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Schopf 30% vs Brazda 50%

Brazda

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Schopf +1 · Brazda -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Brazda) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Brazda: form 40%, the price implies 64%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSchopf 2.25 / Brazda 1.57

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Brazda)-5.8pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 2h before this match

Brazda beat Schopf 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSchopf4wins

AwayBrazda6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderBrazda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSchopf100%3 of 3

AwayBrazda85.7%6 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Schopf3Brazda7n = 10Brazda took 7 of 10

S2Schopf4Brazda6n = 10Brazda took 6 of 10

S3Schopf4Brazda6n = 10Brazda took 6 of 10

S4Schopf1Brazda3n = 4Brazda took 3 of 4

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricSchopfBrazdaS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.334.7−4.4per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSchopfBrazdaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 450 vs 189 / 40649.1%46.6%221 / 450 vs 189 / 406Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.7per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13285773

Schopf2.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog34% won 24 of 70

Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46

Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27

Brazda1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite59% won 35 of 59

Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22

Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34

Karel Schopf vs Adam Brazda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Karel Schopf vs Adam Brazda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.