Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Rein

Home

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

411112119117––

Tomas Cerveny Jr

Away

1.57

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%

Graded at full time

Tomas Cerveny Jr to win

60.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingTomas Rein above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 11-2

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-7

Point 66 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 60.1%

66 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Rein 32–37 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Rein has won 32 of their 69 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Cerveny Jr

Rein 2.25/Cerveny Jr 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.1%

Cerveny Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Rein won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:11

60.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 3.6pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Cerveny Jr

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

32-37 in 69

Cerveny Jr

Wrong

gap of 5 in 69, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Rein 1442 vs Cerveny Jr 1506

Cerveny Jr

Wrong

both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Rein 60% vs Cerveny Jr 80%

Cerveny Jr

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Rein 70% vs Cerveny Jr 50%

Rein

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Rein +1 · Cerveny Jr +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Cerveny Jr) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Cerveny Jr: form 80%, the price implies 64%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRein 2.25 / Cerveny Jr 1.571

Signal prob.40% / 60%

Edge (Cerveny Jr)-3.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRein3wins

AwayCerveny Jr7wins

1 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayCerveny Jr87.5%7 of 8

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rein2Cerveny Jr8n = 10Cerveny Jr took 8 of 10

S2Rein6Cerveny Jr4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10

S3Rein4Cerveny Jr6n = 10Cerveny Jr took 6 of 10

S4Rein2Cerveny Jr4n = 6Cerveny Jr took 4 of 6

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricReinCerveny JrR − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.636.4−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricReinCerveny JrBasisWin rate · lifetime377 / 845 vs 337 / 61044.6%55.3%377 / 845 vs 337 / 610Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match

TT Cup · #13281991

Rein2.25

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog34% won 106 of 309

Down 0–1, comes back20% 40 of 199

Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 108

Cerveny Jr1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite60% won 68 of 114

Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35

Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66

Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 3-1 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.