Tomas Rein vs Simon Matousch 3-0

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Rein

Home

1.30

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

1161181412––––

Simon Matousch

Away

3.40

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched: 73.9% is still 73.9%

Graded at full time

Tomas Rein to win

73.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingTomas Rein above · Simon Matousch below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 14-12

Point 62 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Tomas Rein at 73.9%

62 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Rein 8–1 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 1 of their 9 meetings.

Last 9 · 8–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Rein

Rein 1.30/Matousch 3.40

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

73.9%

Rein · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Rein won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:16

73.9%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30

short by 3.0pp

76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.30 (72%)

Rein

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

8-1 in 9

Rein

Correct

gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Rein 1429 vs Matousch 1395

Rein

Correct

both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Rein 40% vs Matousch 60%

Matousch

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Rein 60% vs Matousch 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Rein -1 · Matousch -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Rein) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Matousch: form 60%, the price implies 29%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRein 1.30 / Matousch 3.40

Signal prob.74% / 26%

Edge (Rein)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 9 meetings

HomeRein8wins

AwayMatousch1wins

2 of 9 to a deciderRein leads 8–1, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeRein100%6 of 6

AwayMatousch33.3%1 of 3

Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rein6Matousch3n = 9Rein took 6 of 9

S2Rein7Matousch2n = 9Rein took 7 of 9

S3Rein7Matousch2n = 9Rein took 7 of 9

S4Rein2Matousch1n = 3Rein took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home556%

3–1Four sets, home111%

3–2Decider, home222%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away111%

These 9 meetings

MetricReinMatouschR − MBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match36.624.7+11.9per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricReinMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 844 vs 149 / 33544.6%44.5%376 / 844 vs 149 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.4per match

TT Cup · #13281823

Rein1.30

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite71% won 54 of 76

Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32

Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52

Matousch3.40

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog35% won 29 of 84

Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25

Tomas Rein vs Simon Matousch 3-0 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Rein vs Simon Matousch 3-0 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.