TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Grzegorz Marud 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11712101715––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
11712101715––––
H2H Lukasz Oracz 8–15 Grzegorz Marud Lukasz Oracz has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2754.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Marud
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1384 vs Marud 1405
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Marud 60%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Marud 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Marud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.85 / Marud 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marud)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13281672
Oracz1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Marud1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwayMarud6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz50%3 of 6
AwayMarud75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Marud4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S4Oracz2Marud4n = 6Marud took 4 of 6
S5Oracz2Marud2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczMarudO − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.736.6−2.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime874 / 1591 vs 657 / 136954.9%48%874 / 1591 vs 657 / 1369Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarudOracz 1.85/Marud 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 00:10L. Oracz144640G. Marud331111113
WSep 22 · 20:30L. Oracz45111193113G. Marud4579111172
LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz32116871G. Marud3961111113
WSep 8 · 18:55L. Oracz331111113G. Marud147520
WSep 7 · 00:20L. Oracz47711711113G. Marud4011711382
LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz42125131022G. Marud5510111112113
LAug 3 · 02:20L. Oracz157440G. Marud331111113
LAug 2 · 18:20L. Oracz30118561G. Marud4071111113
LJul 21 · 23:35L. Oracz4691191162G. Marud44115116113
WJul 15 · 01:10L. Oracz331111113G. Marud236890
L. Oracz10
LOct 11 · 20:20L. Oracz1.90911481P. Gumulinski1.8011611113WOct 11 · 18:45L. Oracz1.91811117113O. Vincenec1.8011591182WOct 11 · 17:30L. Oracz1.711111113W. Urban2.003650WOct 9 · 14:40L. Oracz1.731111113M. Jozefiak2.009990WOct 9 · 13:05L. Oracz1.73591111113J. Kaczmarek2.0011116572WOct 9 · 11:50L. Oracz1.4411118113Z. Sobkow2.63691151LOct 9 · 10:10L. Oracz1.5010311101O. Sokolowski2.5012115123LOct 9 · 09:00L. Oracz1.5371111772M. Baron2.38119811113WOct 9 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.009650L. Oracz1.731111113WOct 9 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek2.251171161L. Oracz1.5713119113
G. Marud10
WOct 11 · 20:45G. Marud1.391191311133J. Nowak2.80511156112LOct 11 · 19:10G. Marud1.504670W. Urban2.401111113WOct 11 · 18:20P. Gumulinski1.8511144121G. Marud1.85131211143WSep 23 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7391470G. Marud2.001116113LSep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.209111112113G. Marud1.6111881492WSep 23 · 00:10G. Marud1.831111113L. Oracz1.834640WSep 22 · 22:35G. Marud2.001111113M. Adamus1.733980WSep 22 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.504380G. Marud1.501111113LSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113WSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Nothing scheduled
G. Marud
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