TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gumulinski vs Grzegorz Marud 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
111314124111214––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
111314124111214––
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 109–98 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 98 of their 207 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0854.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
109-98 in 207
Gumulinski
Wrong
gap of 11 in 207, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1349 vs Marud 1415
Marud
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 40% vs Marud 80%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 50% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski -3 · Marud +1
Gumulinski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Marud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 1.85 / Marud 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marud)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13277008
Gumulinski1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 10)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Marud1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 19 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
78%takes the first set · 7 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGumulinski4wins
AwayMarud6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGumulinski57.1%4 of 7
AwayMarud100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gumulinski7Marud3n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S2Gumulinski3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Gumulinski6Marud4n = 10Gumulinski took 6 of 10
S4Gumulinski3Marud4n = 7Marud took 4 of 7
S5Gumulinski1Marud3n = 4Marud took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGumulinskiMarudG − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.5−1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime1036 / 1830 vs 655 / 136656.6%48%1036 / 1830 vs 655 / 1366Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarudGumulinski 1.85/Marud 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 22:50P. Gumulinski2129100G. Marud341111123
LAug 25 · 15:10P. Gumulinski4587141152G. Marud541111129113
WAug 23 · 18:20P. Gumulinski4413911113G. Marud351111851
LJul 28 · 05:05P. Gumulinski4112611572G. Marud491011611113
LJul 27 · 20:45P. Gumulinski43114111072G. Marud49711812113
WJul 27 · 05:05P. Gumulinski331111113G. Marud227960
WJul 26 · 20:45P. Gumulinski351311113G. Marud2211560
LJul 14 · 02:30P. Gumulinski401014971G. Marud46121211113
LJul 13 · 21:05P. Gumulinski38139971G. Marud44111111113
WJul 13 · 02:20P. Gumulinski45117511113G. Marud4071111832
P. Gumulinski10
LOct 11 · 19:30P. Gumulinski1.30117791J. Nowak3.2561111113LOct 10 · 17:05A. Cichocki1.6191111113P. Gumulinski2.20116981LOct 10 · 15:55P. Gumulinski1.5591118462W. Buczynski2.301171611113LOct 10 · 14:45M. Oracz1.737101211113P. Gumulinski2.00111210492WOct 10 · 13:30D. Swider1.6011611161P. Gumulinski2.1513117183WOct 10 · 11:55D. Morawiec2.20811711132P. Gumulinski1.60119114153LOct 10 · 11:05M. Oracz1.6581111113P. Gumulinski2.10119941WOct 10 · 09:55P. Gumulinski1.501111163W. Buczynski2.4064140WOct 10 · 08:45A. Cichocki1.85141011442P. Gumulinski1.801212411113WOct 10 · 07:30D. Swider1.5411510111P. Gumulinski2.3331112133
G. Marud10
LOct 11 · 19:10G. Marud1.504670W. Urban2.401111113WSep 23 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7391470G. Marud2.001116113LSep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.209111112113G. Marud1.6111881492WSep 23 · 00:10G. Marud1.831111113L. Oracz1.834640WSep 22 · 22:35G. Marud2.001111113M. Adamus1.733980WSep 22 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.504380G. Marud1.501111113LSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113WSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113
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