Miroslav Vana vs Filip Kubos 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Miroslav Vana

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

118116911119––

Filip Kubos

Away

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Miroslav Vana to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMiroslav Vana above · Filip Kubos below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 76 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Miroslav Vana at 54.0%

76 points played in total.

H2H Miroslav Vana 6–2 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 2 of their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 6–2Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Vana

Vana 1.83/Kubos 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Vana · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Vana won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:28

54.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833

short by 0.6pp

54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Kubos

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-2 in 8

Vana

Correct

gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Vana 1524 vs Kubos 1479

Vana

Correct

both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Vana 80% vs Kubos 40%

Vana

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Vana 80% vs Kubos 30%

Vana

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Vana +2 · Kubos -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vana) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kubos: form 40%, the price implies 55%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVana 1.833 / Kubos 1.833

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Vana)-0.6pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeVana6wins

AwayKubos2wins

3 of 8 to a deciderVana leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVana83.3%5 of 6

AwayKubosn = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Vana6Kubos2n = 8Vana took 6 of 8

S2Vana7Kubos1n = 8Vana took 7 of 8

S3Vana3Kubos4n = 7Kubos took 4 of 7

S4Vana3Kubos2n = 5Vana took 3 of 5

S5Vana1Kubos2n = 3Kubos took 2 of 3

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home225%

3–1Four sets, home338%

3–2Decider, home113%

2–3Decider, away225%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 8 meetings

MetricVanaKubosV − KBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match42.233.2+9.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricVanaKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 352 vs 357 / 72353.1%49.4%187 / 352 vs 357 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.7per match

Setka Cup · #13281586

Vana1.83

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 06)

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Kubos1.83

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Miroslav Vana vs Filip Kubos 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Miroslav Vana vs Filip Kubos 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.