Radek Benes vs Michal Moravec 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Radek Benes

Home

1.80

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

11810121113116811

Michal Moravec

Away

1.91

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 5

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Radek Benes to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingRadek Benes above · Michal Moravec below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 11-6

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 101 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%

101 points played in total.

H2H Radek Benes 27–31 Michal Moravec Radek Benes has won 27 of their 58 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Benes

Benes 1.80/Moravec 1.91

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Benes · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Moravec won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 10:08

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Benes

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

27-31 in 58

Moravec

Correct

gap of 4 in 58, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Benes 1681 vs Moravec 1637

Benes

Wrong

both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Benes 80% vs Moravec 100%

Moravec

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Benes 60% vs Moravec 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Benes +1 · Moravec +5

Moravec

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Moravec: form 100%, the price implies 52%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Moravec 1.909

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Benes)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBenes5wins

AwayMoravec5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBenes50%3 of 6

AwayMoravec50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Benes6Moravec4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10

S2Benes3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10

S3Benes4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10

S4Benes5Moravec2n = 7Benes took 5 of 7

S5Benes2Moravec2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricBenesMoravecB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.0+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBenesMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1033 vs 221 / 43152.6%51.3%543 / 1033 vs 221 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.0per match

TT Cup · #13281287

Benes1.80

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite58% won 181 of 314

Up 2–0, closes it94% 78 of 83

Up 1–0, closes it76% 121 of 160

Moravec1.91

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

Won last 5

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog44% won 45 of 103

Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58

Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33

Radek Benes vs Michal Moravec 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Radek Benes vs Michal Moravec 2-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.