TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krenek vs Michal Moravec 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113511411––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 55 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 67.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 27–16 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 16 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5867.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
clears by 3.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-16 in 43
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1645 vs Moravec 1611
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 40% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 50% vs Moravec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Moravec +3
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.571 / Moravec 2.25
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Krenek)+3.4pp
TT Cup · #13266757
Krenek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 136 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it73% 90 of 123
Moravec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek9wins
AwayMoravec1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek87.5%7 of 8
AwayMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek8Moravec2n = 10Krenek took 8 of 10
S2Krenek8Moravec2n = 10Krenek took 8 of 10
S3Krenek8Moravec2n = 10Krenek took 8 of 10
S4Krenek4Moravec1n = 5Krenek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekMoravecK − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.432.8+8.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime520 / 1011 vs 219 / 42951.4%51.1%520 / 1011 vs 219 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.57/Moravec 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 12:15T. Krenek351111133M. Moravec2146110
WOct 6 · 07:40T. Krenek331111113M. Moravec204880
WOct 5 · 12:15T. Krenek44111111113M. Moravec33651391
WSep 22 · 06:45T. Krenek4881118113M. Moravec431171691
WSep 21 · 10:45T. Krenek4212811113M. Moravec361011691
WAug 31 · 12:35T. Krenek331111113M. Moravec195590
LAug 31 · 10:40T. Krenek561310131192M. Moravec561112157113
WAug 18 · 15:40T. Krenek547111411113M. Moravec53118121392
WJul 13 · 12:15T. Krenek331111113M. Moravec205960
WJul 9 · 12:45T. Krenek361114113M. Moravec2761290
T. Krenek10
LOct 9 · 12:34T. Krenek1.6771111121R. Benes2.1011513143LOct 9 · 10:40B. Mrowetz2.001111113T. Krenek1.734890WOct 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.83148861T. Krenek1.83121111113LOct 8 · 17:20T. Krenek1.4491111662V. Konvicka2.63112411113LOct 8 · 15:45A. Kanak2.00111114113T. Krenek1.73991641WOct 8 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.631191171T. Krenek1.4413119113WOct 8 · 14:00T. Krenek1.73811119113R. Sedlacek2.0011661132LOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122WOct 8 · 12:15M. Moravec2.3846110T. Krenek1.531111133LOct 8 · 11:15T. Krenek1.8341360J. Krupnik1.831115113
M. Moravec10
WOct 9 · 11:10M. Moravec1.8351111113R. Benes1.83116991WOct 9 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.57911981M. Moravec2.2511911113WOct 8 · 12:45M. Moravec1.801111123R. Sedlacek1.9169100LOct 8 · 12:15M. Moravec2.3846110T. Krenek1.531111133WOct 8 · 10:45R. Sedlacek2.001151381M. Moravec1.7381115113LOct 8 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.671191011113M. Moravec2.1071112582LOct 6 · 08:38M. Moravec1.80137891R. Sedlacek1.91111111113LOct 6 · 07:40M. Moravec2.004880T. Krenek1.731111113LOct 6 · 06:40M. Moravec1.67715111142D. Velky Jr2.10111749113WOct 6 · 05:40M. Moravec1.67101211123R. Sedlacek2.1012105101
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