TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Fojtik vs Radek Benes 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 20 - Czech 9 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511119118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Fojtik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Radek Benes at 59.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Fojtik 5–8 Radek Benes Tomas Fojtik has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3759.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Benes
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojtik 1539 vs Benes 1687
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojtik 20% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojtik 40% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojtik -2 · Benes +3
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fojtik form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojtik 2.25 / Benes 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Benes)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268186
Fojtik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 46 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Benes1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 182 of 318
Up 2–0, closes it94% 79 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it76% 122 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFojtik5wins
AwayBenes5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojtik80%4 of 5
AwayBenes80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojtik5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Fojtik8Benes2n = 10Fojtik took 8 of 10
S3Fojtik4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Fojtik6Benes2n = 8Fojtik took 6 of 8
S5Fojtik1Benes4n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFojtikBenesF − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.3+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 307 vs 542 / 103148.9%52.6%150 / 307 vs 542 / 1031Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesFojtik 2.25/Benes 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fojtik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 12:38T. Fojtik3511112113R. Benes27551161
WAug 11 · 11:40T. Fojtik351211123R. Benes27107100
LAug 10 · 06:40T. Fojtik34911591R. Benes4111811113
LJul 8 · 05:40T. Fojtik3911831162R. Benes48711118113
WJul 1 · 14:10T. Fojtik391117113R. Benes3391590
WJun 22 · 06:40T. Fojtik47118116113R. Benes3931191152
LJun 5 · 12:45T. Fojtik491011101172R. Benes47125127113
LJun 5 · 10:40T. Fojtik48101171192R. Benes48126118113
LApr 1 · 11:10T. Fojtik46812121132R. Benes531110147113
WMar 18 · 12:10T. Fojtik4071111113R. Benes30116761
T. Fojtik10
LOct 9 · 16:50L. Kantor1.4411411113T. Fojtik2.63911581LOct 9 · 14:40T. Fojtik1.739290T. Molin2.001111113LOct 9 · 13:40T. Fojtik1.6731090L. Kantor2.101112113WSep 26 · 16:46R. Solle2.389712121T. Fojtik1.53111110143LSep 26 · 15:40T. Fojtik1.735850E. Precek2.001111113LSep 26 · 14:40T. Fojtik1.6191161172R. Solle2.20118119113WSep 26 · 13:40T. Fojtik1.4012101111113D. Vitasek2.75101281372WSep 22 · 20:38D. Vitasek2.2561070T. Fojtik1.571112113LSep 22 · 20:15T. Fojtik1.806780D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 22 · 18:45D. Stusek1.8012111112113T. Fojtik1.9114341482
R. Benes10
WOct 9 · 15:10L. Kantor2.20811891R. Benes1.6111911113WOct 9 · 14:10R. Benes1.731211113T. Molin2.0010690WOct 9 · 12:34T. Krenek1.6771111121R. Benes2.1011513143LOct 9 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.7311613113R. Benes2.008111171LOct 9 · 11:10M. Moravec1.8351111113R. Benes1.83116991LOct 9 · 10:10R. Benes1.83148861T. Krenek1.83121111113WOct 8 · 09:20J. Gembala1.57811118102R. Benes2.25118811123WOct 8 · 08:15R. Benes1.61111110113D. Velky Jr2.20981281LOct 8 · 06:45J. Gembala1.611111113R. Benes2.209770WOct 8 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.83111110582R. Benes1.83991211113
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