TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Gembala vs Radek Benes 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181188111012
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 98 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Jan Gembala at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 16–12 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Gembala beat Benes 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1654.0%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 9.7pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Gembala
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Gembala
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1679 vs Benes 1689
Benes
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 60% vs Benes 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala -1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gembala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.571 / Benes 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gembala)-9.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263602
Gembala1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 81 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it81% 66 of 82
Benes2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 61 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala7wins
AwayBenes3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala71.4%5 of 7
AwayBenes33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala7Benes3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S2Gembala5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S3Gembala7Benes3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S4Gembala5Benes3n = 8Gembala took 5 of 8
S5Gembala2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaBenesG − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.937.4+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 394 vs 538 / 102454.6%52.5%215 / 394 vs 538 / 1024Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.57/Benes 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 06:45J. Gembala331111113R. Benes239770
WAug 23 · 19:40J. Gembala501071111113R. Benes4812118982
WAug 5 · 06:40J. Gembala3811412113R. Benes282111051
WJun 24 · 06:40J. Gembala4211128113R. Benes339101131
LJun 17 · 09:15J. Gembala4371111772R. Benes51119911113
WJun 17 · 05:40J. Gembala4111811113R. Benes33611881
LJun 2 · 07:40J. Gembala50111271192R. Benes51614119113
LMay 24 · 11:10J. Gembala381269111R. Benes45101111133
WMay 18 · 09:10J. Gembala49811118113R. Benes3911671142
WMay 18 · 06:40J. Gembala351311113R. Benes2311660
J. Gembala10
LOct 8 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5781080J. Krupnik2.251112113WOct 8 · 06:45J. Gembala1.611111113R. Benes2.209770WOct 8 · 05:45J. Gembala1.401111173D. Velky Jr2.7538150WOct 7 · 09:15J. Skvrna1.80113941J. Gembala1.9161111113LOct 7 · 07:40J. Skvrna1.6781111133J. Gembala2.101198111WOct 7 · 07:10D. Velky Jr2.634790J. Gembala1.441111113WOct 7 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6711911113L. Slavik2.10811671LSep 28 · 21:18J. Gembala1.91111158122L. Slavik1.80561111143WSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140LSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143
R. Benes10
WOct 8 · 08:15R. Benes1.61111110113D. Velky Jr2.20981281LOct 8 · 06:45J. Gembala1.611111113R. Benes2.209770WOct 8 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.83111110582R. Benes1.83991211113WOct 7 · 13:19R. Benes1.501111113L. Dzida2.507750WOct 7 · 11:45R. Benes1.25101111113T. Kindl3.75128791LOct 7 · 10:45R. Benes1.5711681182L. Kantor2.25811113113WOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 13:15R. Benes1.915980T. Krenek1.801111113WOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113
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