TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Fojt vs Jiri Plachy 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101211912101012911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:23 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timePavel Fojt to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Pavel Fojt @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingPavel Fojt above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 3-5
Point 94 set 5, 3-5 · our read held Pavel Fojt at 54.5%
94 points drawn · the score is 12 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Pavel Fojt 61–61 Jiri Plachy Dead even across their 122 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pick
Sealed 15:23Sent to Pro: Pavel Fojt @ 1.73 · Lost
54.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fojt
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
61-61 in 122
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojt 1515 vs Plachy 1443
Fojt
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojt 40% vs Plachy 20%
Fojt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojt 40% vs Plachy 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojt -1 · Plachy -4
Plachy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Fojt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojt 1.727 / Plachy 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Fojt)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13279353
Fojt1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 80 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it81% 52 of 64
Plachy2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 145 of 367
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFojt4wins
AwayPlachy6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPlachy leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojt42.9%3 of 7
AwayPlachy66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojt7Plachy3n = 10Fojt took 7 of 10
S2Fojt3Plachy7n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10
S3Fojt4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S4Fojt5Plachy4n = 9Fojt took 5 of 9
S5Fojt2Plachy3n = 5Plachy took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFojtPlachyF − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.741.7−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 690 vs 738 / 160648.8%46%337 / 690 vs 738 / 1606Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FojtFojt 1.73/Plachy 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.5%
Fojt · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pavel Fojt @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 22:30P. Fojt50117911122J. Plachy47611115143
LOct 3 · 22:30P. Fojt26341181J. Plachy3911116113
LSep 13 · 22:30P. Fojt431391471J. Plachy49111116113
WSep 5 · 22:30P. Fojt331111113J. Plachy238780
WAug 29 · 21:30P. Fojt48811117113J. Plachy4111661172
LAug 29 · 19:30P. Fojt5191581182J. Plachy511113115113
WAug 20 · 23:30P. Fojt53149711123J. Plachy471211113102
LAug 17 · 03:30P. Fojt4411671192J. Plachy45411118113
LAug 17 · 01:30P. Fojt19122141J. Plachy43101111113
WAug 8 · 19:30P. Fojt4011711113J. Plachy32611871
P. Fojt10
LOct 11 · 15:30J. Prokupek1.6191111113P. Fojt2.20114681WOct 11 · 14:00P. Fojt1.5011149113K. Darin2.509121141LOct 9 · 02:58P. Fojt2.50981161R. Pavelka1.5011118113WOct 9 · 02:00P. Fojt2.631111113V. Postelt1.447890LOct 9 · 01:00P. Fojt2.509111071R. Pavelka1.5011912113WOct 9 · 00:00R. Krejci1.2271151142P. Fojt4.00116115113LOct 8 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.57101111113P. Fojt2.25127371WOct 6 · 02:58K. Darin2.387620P. Fojt1.531111113LOct 6 · 01:30P. Fojt1.44137971K. Darin2.63111111113LOct 6 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.6111118113P. Fojt2.20741191
J. Plachy10
LOct 11 · 15:00K. Darin2.0011117133J. Plachy1.736911111LOct 11 · 14:30J. Plachy1.8379111142J. Prokupek1.83111164113LOct 10 · 03:00J. Plachy2.501790M. Vedmoch1.501111113LOct 10 · 02:00J. Plachy2.50912111162K. Brozhik1.501110913113WOct 10 · 01:00J. Plachy2.501111123M. Vedmoch1.5093100LOct 10 · 00:00R. Krejci1.531111113J. Plachy2.386880WOct 9 · 22:30J. Prokupek2.0010740J. Plachy1.731211113LOct 9 · 21:30J. Plachy1.47611119122T. Dousa2.50118911143WOct 9 · 20:30K. Darin1.838970J. Plachy1.831111113LOct 9 · 19:30J. Plachy1.8011811772F. Jungman1.91811711113
Upcoming Matches
P. Fojt
J. Plachy
Oct 11 · 18:30J. Plachy2.63T. Janata1.44—Oct 11 · 19:30J. Plachy2.20R. Pavelka1.61—Oct 11 · 20:30J. Plachy2.20V. Postelt1.61—Oct 12 · 14:30J. Plachy1.90T. Dousa1.80—Oct 12 · 15:30J. Plachy2.63M. Sedlak1.44—Oct 12 · 16:30J. Plachy1.80J. Prokupek1.91—Oct 12 · 18:30J. Plachy1.91T. Dousa1.80—Oct 12 · 19:30J. Plachy—L. Krok——Oct 12 · 20:30J. Plachy—P. Fojt——
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