TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Mugowski vs Adrian Eliasz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10124111517––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:45 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
10124111517––––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 32–27 Adrian Eliasz Adrian Eliasz has won 27 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4554.5%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.3pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-27 in 59
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1360 vs Eliasz 1321
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 40% vs Eliasz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 30% vs Eliasz 60%
Eliasz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +1 · Eliasz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Mugowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.70 / Eliasz 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Mugowski)-4.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13278917
Mugowski1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 103 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Eliasz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski6wins
AwayEliasz4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayEliasz50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski6Eliasz4n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S2Mugowski4Eliasz6n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S3Mugowski4Eliasz6n = 10Eliasz took 6 of 10
S4Mugowski7Eliasz2n = 9Mugowski took 7 of 9
S5Mugowski2Eliasz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiEliaszM − EBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.540.6+1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiEliaszBasisWin rate · lifetime883 / 1944 vs 364 / 92745.4%39.3%883 / 1944 vs 364 / 927Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiMugowski 1.70/Eliasz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Eliasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 15:25A. Mugowski371181081A. Eliasz4391112113
WSep 20 · 18:10A. Mugowski46118115113A. Eliasz4491141192
WSep 19 · 18:30A. Mugowski3961111113A. Eliasz32114891
LJul 31 · 00:35A. Mugowski50611111392A. Eliasz531113711113
WJul 19 · 11:50A. Mugowski4312119113A. Eliasz321061151
WJul 19 · 05:40A. Mugowski3911116113A. Eliasz30861151
LJul 19 · 03:25A. Mugowski2711970A. Eliasz351311113
LJun 30 · 20:05A. Mugowski4511591192A. Eliasz49811118113
WMay 24 · 11:05A. Mugowski521091111113A. Eliasz4712118882
WMay 24 · 08:20A. Mugowski4711149133A. Eliasz4171211111
A. Mugowski10
WOct 11 · 08:05T. Piotrowski1.71810111162A. Mugowski2.00111239113LOct 11 · 07:15J. Lamperski1.7011118113A. Mugowski1.95841151WOct 11 · 05:15K. Klocek2.001114661A. Mugowski1.7081611113LOct 11 · 04:25M. Minda1.591111113A. Mugowski2.227890LOct 11 · 03:00K. Kostyk1.5581111113A. Mugowski2.30119991LOct 9 · 00:10A. Mugowski2.0055100P. Perzynski1.731111123WOct 8 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.251112113S. Brud1.5781060LOct 8 · 21:50A. Mugowski4.506790K. Staszczyk1.171111113LOct 8 · 21:25A. Mugowski2.204116101R. Stapor1.6111711123LOct 8 · 20:30S. Brud1.4061111113A. Mugowski2.75118481
A. Eliasz10
LOct 11 · 08:35M. Sinicki1.80111011113A. Eliasz1.90912871WOct 11 · 07:20A. Eliasz1.9812118113P. Staniszewski1.651091171LOct 11 · 06:05A. Myszewski1.95121179113A. Eliasz1.75107111162WOct 11 · 04:55W. Iwasyszyn1.95971231A. Eliasz1.75111110113LOct 11 · 03:25B. Wisniewski1.87115115113A. Eliasz1.8381191172WOct 10 · 00:10A. Eliasz2.0011511133M. Skorski1.719115111WOct 9 · 23:20A. Eliasz1.71411511113D. Poloszczanski2.0011611742WOct 9 · 21:55A. Eliasz1.951111113B. Warpas1.758780LOct 9 · 21:30A. Eliasz1.8581090M. Lukaszewski1.851112113WOct 9 · 20:30D. Poloszczanski2.00811771A. Eliasz1.7111611113
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
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A. Eliasz
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