TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Eliasz vs Piotr Staniszewski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1158116111121412
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Staniszewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1158116111121412
H2H Adrian Eliasz 11–10 Piotr Staniszewski Piotr Staniszewski has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Eliasz beat Staniszewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3454.0%Our read57.5%to break even at 1.74
short by 3.5pp57.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.74 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (52%)
Staniszewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1337 vs Staniszewski 1275
Eliasz
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 60% vs Staniszewski 0%
Eliasz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 60% vs Staniszewski 20%
Eliasz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz +1 · Staniszewski -5
Staniszewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Staniszewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniszewski form (0%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 1.86 / Staniszewski 1.74
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staniszewski)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13279121
Eliasz1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Staniszewski1.74
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite56% won 62 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it82% 50 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEliasz3wins
AwayStaniszewski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaniszewski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliasz60%3 of 5
AwayStaniszewski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Eliasz5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Eliasz3Staniszewski7n = 10Staniszewski took 7 of 10
S4Eliasz4Staniszewski5n = 9Staniszewski took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricEliaszStaniszewskiE − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.2−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 928 vs 392 / 83539.3%47%365 / 928 vs 392 / 835Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaniszewskiEliasz 1.86/Staniszewski 1.74
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Staniszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Eliasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 07:20A. Eliasz4212118113P. Staniszewski371091171
LSep 20 · 00:35A. Eliasz43821111112P. Staniszewski52111189133
LSep 13 · 10:35A. Eliasz4551112982P. Staniszewski521191011113
WSep 13 · 07:20A. Eliasz4511118153P. Staniszewski408811131
LMar 22 · 14:30A. Eliasz4211119111P. Staniszewski4691311133
LMar 22 · 01:15A. Eliasz371151381P. Staniszewski4471115113
LMar 21 · 22:50A. Eliasz38911991P. Staniszewski3811511113
WMar 15 · 15:40A. Eliasz4011117113P. Staniszewski32591171
LMar 13 · 17:45A. Eliasz279990P. Staniszewski331111113
LMar 8 · 01:40A. Eliasz33871171P. Staniszewski3811115113
A. Eliasz10
WOct 11 · 09:50A. Mugowski1.70104150A. Eliasz2.001211173LOct 11 · 08:35M. Sinicki1.80111011113A. Eliasz1.90912871WOct 11 · 07:20A. Eliasz1.9812118113P. Staniszewski1.651091171LOct 11 · 06:05A. Myszewski1.95121179113A. Eliasz1.75107111162WOct 11 · 04:55W. Iwasyszyn1.95971231A. Eliasz1.75111110113LOct 11 · 03:25B. Wisniewski1.87115115113A. Eliasz1.8381191172WOct 10 · 00:10A. Eliasz2.0011511133M. Skorski1.719115111WOct 9 · 23:20A. Eliasz1.71411511113D. Poloszczanski2.0011611742WOct 9 · 21:55A. Eliasz1.951111113B. Warpas1.758780LOct 9 · 21:30A. Eliasz1.8581090M. Lukaszewski1.851112113
P. Staniszewski10
LOct 11 · 09:00W. Iwasyszyn1.98111139113P. Staniszewski1.7388111172LOct 11 · 08:10W. Iwasyszyn1.95117811113P. Staniszewski1.7591111682LOct 11 · 07:20A. Eliasz1.9812118113P. Staniszewski1.651091171LOct 11 · 05:15B. Wisniewski2.0511119153P. Staniszewski1.659711131LOct 11 · 04:30A. Myszewski1.721111113P. Staniszewski2.007770WOct 11 · 03:00M. Sinicki1.85118101172P. Staniszewski1.85811128113WOct 4 · 14:15K. Makowski2.0571111101P. Staniszewski1.6811138123LOct 4 · 13:25K. Szurlej1.061111113P. Staniszewski9.004750LOct 4 · 11:20M. Marchlewski1.551111113P. Staniszewski2.258690LOct 4 · 10:30P. Maruszak1.8611214113P. Staniszewski1.856111281
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