TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Makowski vs Piotr Staniszewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71111131181012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Staniszewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
71111131181012––
H2H Kacper Makowski 6–9 Piotr Staniszewski Kacper Makowski has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Staniszewski beat Makowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0954.0%Our read59.5%to break even at 1.68
short by 5.5pp59.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.68 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Staniszewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Staniszewski
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makowski 1319 vs Staniszewski 1315
Makowski
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makowski 60% vs Staniszewski 20%
Makowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makowski 40% vs Staniszewski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makowski +2 · Staniszewski -4
Staniszewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Staniszewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniszewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakowski 2.05 / Staniszewski 1.68
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staniszewski)-5.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243539
Makowski2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 31 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Staniszewski1.68
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 65 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakowski3wins
AwayStaniszewski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStaniszewski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakowski75%3 of 4
AwayStaniszewski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makowski4Staniszewski6n = 10Staniszewski took 6 of 10
S2Makowski5Staniszewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Makowski6Staniszewski4n = 10Makowski took 6 of 10
S4Makowski0Staniszewski9n = 9Staniszewski took 9 of 9
S5Makowski2Staniszewski1n = 3Makowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakowskiStaniszewskiM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.643.7−4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakowskiStaniszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 351 vs 393 / 83841.3%46.9%145 / 351 vs 393 / 838Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaniszewskiMakowski 2.05/Staniszewski 1.68
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staniszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staniszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 08:05K. Makowski4714911762P. Staniszewski521211711113
LMay 30 · 10:35K. Makowski351081161P. Staniszewski4112117113
LMay 9 · 15:30K. Makowski32711951P. Staniszewski3811511113
WApr 12 · 03:50K. Makowski351211123P. Staniszewski29109100
LApr 5 · 03:25K. Makowski31511871P. Staniszewski4211911113
WMar 27 · 18:30K. Makowski521371110113P. Staniszewski50111171292
WMar 8 · 09:10K. Makowski49141158113P. Staniszewski50128111182
LFeb 20 · 17:45K. Makowski32761181P. Staniszewski4111118113
LFeb 8 · 12:45K. Makowski35911691P. Staniszewski4111811113
LFeb 6 · 10:00K. Makowski4816131181P. Staniszewski5318159113
K. Makowski10
WOct 4 · 12:35M. Marchlewski2.15961151K. Makowski1.6311113113WOct 4 · 11:45M. Zagajewski1.725970K. Makowski2.001111113LOct 4 · 10:55K. Makowski4.30671141K. Szurlej1.1611115113WOct 4 · 09:45K. Makowski2.30323119113P. Maruszak1.55112171192LOct 4 · 08:05P. Staniszewski1.801211711113K. Makowski1.8514911762WOct 4 · 07:15P. Maruszak1.854711111K. Makowski1.8511114133LOct 4 · 05:15T. Piotrowski1.4551611113K. Makowski2.501114551LOct 4 · 04:25M. Zagajewski1.581111113K. Makowski2.209870LOct 4 · 03:00M. Marchlewski1.4911911113K. Makowski2.46711991LOct 3 · 14:35K. Makowski3.00751191P. Maruszak1.3211117113
P. Staniszewski10
LOct 4 · 13:25K. Szurlej1.061111113P. Staniszewski9.004750LOct 4 · 11:20M. Marchlewski1.551111113P. Staniszewski2.258690LOct 4 · 10:30P. Maruszak1.8611214113P. Staniszewski1.856111281LOct 4 · 09:00M. Zagajewski1.80119116113P. Staniszewski1.9171121122WOct 4 · 08:05P. Staniszewski1.801211711113K. Makowski1.8514911762LOct 4 · 06:25T. Piotrowski1.601111113P. Staniszewski2.207690LOct 4 · 05:35M. Marchlewski1.60111164113P. Staniszewski2.1576111182LOct 4 · 04:50P. Staniszewski2.10128991P. Maruszak1.65101111113WOct 4 · 03:40P. Staniszewski2.001311113M. Zagajewski1.7011590WSep 20 · 07:40P. Staniszewski2.00111179113I. Dabrowski1.7076111182
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