TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kostyk vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119119119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:58 and never touched: 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
811119119119––
H2H Kamil Kostyk 4–5 Arkadiusz Mugowski Kamil Kostyk has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5859.8%Our read64.5%to break even at 1.55
short by 4.7pp64.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.55 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1423 vs Mugowski 1366
Kostyk
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 60% vs Mugowski 20%
Kostyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 40% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +1 · Mugowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kostyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.55 / Mugowski 2.30
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kostyk)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274159
Kostyk1.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Mugowski2.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 153 of 383
Down 0–1, comes back25% 59 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back15% 18 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKostyk4wins
AwayMugowski5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMugowski leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk80%4 of 5
AwayMugowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk5Mugowski4n = 9Kostyk took 5 of 9
S2Kostyk3Mugowski6n = 9Mugowski took 6 of 9
S3Kostyk6Mugowski3n = 9Kostyk took 6 of 9
S4Kostyk3Mugowski1n = 4Kostyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricKostykMugowskiK − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match36.434.0+2.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 463 vs 882 / 194448%45.4%222 / 463 vs 882 / 1944Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.55/Mugowski 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 23:20K. Kostyk341111123A. Mugowski2266100
LSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk50961111132A. Mugowski50111158153
LJan 18 · 15:25K. Kostyk36119791A. Mugowski4291111113
WNov 23 · 12:30K. Kostyk4211911113A. Mugowski29211791
LNov 23 · 06:45K. Kostyk2881190A. Mugowski351113113
WOct 18 · 19:05K. Kostyk341112113A. Mugowski2471070
LSep 26 · 11:25K. Kostyk259880A. Mugowski331111113
WSep 26 · 03:00K. Kostyk351211123A. Mugowski26106100
LSep 24 · 15:25K. Kostyk4458111282A. Mugowski451111210113
K. Kostyk10
WOct 10 · 14:15M. Minda1.919680K. Kostyk1.701111113LOct 10 · 13:25T. Piotrowski1.901151011113K. Kostyk1.8091112982WOct 10 · 11:20J. Lamperski1.7796130K. Kostyk1.931111153WOct 10 · 10:30B. Mleczko2.0589111472K. Kostyk1.701111512113LOct 10 · 09:00T. Filbrandt1.58118911113K. Kostyk2.2521111442LOct 10 · 08:05K. Klocek3.31101111113K. Kostyk1.29127891LOct 10 · 07:15B. Mleczko1.9011911133K. Kostyk1.809117111LOct 10 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.951211113K. Kostyk1.7710640WOct 10 · 04:25T. Piotrowski1.8581111672K. Kostyk1.86116711113LOct 10 · 03:00I. Dabrowski1.901211123K. Kostyk1.75106100
A. Mugowski10
LOct 11 · 04:25M. Minda1.591111113A. Mugowski2.227890LOct 9 · 00:10A. Mugowski2.0055100P. Perzynski1.731111123WOct 8 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.251112113S. Brud1.5781060LOct 8 · 21:50A. Mugowski4.506790K. Staszczyk1.171111113LOct 8 · 21:25A. Mugowski2.204116101R. Stapor1.6111711123LOct 8 · 20:30S. Brud1.4061111113A. Mugowski2.75118481LOct 8 · 19:15A. Mugowski2.2051050P. Perzynski1.611112113LOct 8 · 18:05B. Czerwinski1.251110119113A. Mugowski3.7581271142WOct 8 · 16:55M. Minda1.6781111792A. Mugowski2.10117911113WOct 8 · 15:25B. Sulkowski1.73811117102A. Mugowski2.00119711123
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.