TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Mugowski vs Przemyslaw Perzynski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5115111012––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:02 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePrzemyslaw Perzynski to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Mugowski above · Przemyslaw Perzynski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 54 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Przemyslaw Perzynski at 56.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 8–7 Przemyslaw Perzynski Przemyslaw Perzynski has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Perzynski beat Mugowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:0256.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Perzynski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1374 vs Perzynski 1583
Perzynski
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 20% vs Perzynski 60%
Perzynski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 40% vs Perzynski 70%
Perzynski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +1 · Perzynski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Perzynski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 2.00 / Perzynski 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Perzynski)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260275
Mugowski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 155 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 236
Down 0–2, comes back15% 18 of 121
Perzynski1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 39 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski5wins
AwayPerzynski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayPerzynski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski7Perzynski3n = 10Mugowski took 7 of 10
S2Mugowski3Perzynski7n = 10Perzynski took 7 of 10
S3Mugowski4Perzynski6n = 10Perzynski took 6 of 10
S4Mugowski4Perzynski3n = 7Mugowski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiPerzynskiM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.636.3−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiPerzynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime882 / 1943 vs 258 / 46645.4%55.4%882 / 1943 vs 258 / 466Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PerzynskiMugowski 2.00/Perzynski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Perzynski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Perzynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 19:15A. Mugowski2051050P. Perzynski341112113
WOct 8 · 00:35A. Mugowski46117116113P. Perzynski4881191192
LMay 6 · 15:50A. Mugowski4211561192P. Perzynski49811118113
LDec 26 · 06:15A. Mugowski237880P. Perzynski331111113
WDec 4 · 20:20A. Mugowski4011117113P. Perzynski36981181
WDec 3 · 16:25A. Mugowski4211911113P. Perzynski30311791
LNov 4 · 18:20A. Mugowski321147101P. Perzynski3951111123
WNov 3 · 18:20A. Mugowski43111110113P. Perzynski33691261
LOct 16 · 18:55A. Mugowski34691181P. Perzynski3711114113
WJul 10 · 18:30A. Mugowski341112113P. Perzynski2461080
A. Mugowski10
WOct 8 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.251112113S. Brud1.5781060LOct 8 · 21:50A. Mugowski4.506790K. Staszczyk1.171111113LOct 8 · 21:25A. Mugowski2.204116101R. Stapor1.6111711123LOct 8 · 20:30S. Brud1.4061111113A. Mugowski2.75118481LOct 8 · 19:15A. Mugowski2.2051050P. Perzynski1.611112113LOct 8 · 18:05B. Czerwinski1.251110119113A. Mugowski3.7581271142WOct 8 · 16:55M. Minda1.6781111792A. Mugowski2.10117911113WOct 8 · 15:25B. Sulkowski1.73811117102A. Mugowski2.00119711123WOct 8 · 00:35A. Mugowski2.38117116113P. Perzynski1.5381191192LOct 7 · 23:45S. Brud1.61811116113A. Mugowski2.2011771162
P. Perzynski10
LOct 8 · 23:45P. Perzynski2.38114351K. Staszczyk1.5361111113WOct 8 · 22:55P. Perzynski1.4411711113R. Stapor2.63611771LOct 8 · 21:00P. Perzynski1.67109111192S. Brud2.10121156113WOct 8 · 20:05M. Minda2.109830P. Perzynski1.671111113WOct 8 · 19:15A. Mugowski2.2051050P. Perzynski1.611112113WOct 8 · 17:20B. Sulkowski2.25761171P. Perzynski1.5711117113WOct 8 · 16:30B. Czerwinski1.83791191P. Perzynski1.8311119113WOct 8 · 15:00S. Brud2.00971171P. Perzynski1.7311114113LOct 8 · 00:35A. Mugowski2.38117116113P. Perzynski1.5381191192WOct 7 · 22:55S. Brud2.25311671P. Perzynski1.5711911113
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