TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Czerwinski vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181012117911114
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched: 78.2% is still 78.2%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
78.2%
78.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Czerwinski above · Arkadiusz Mugowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 94 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Bartosz Czerwinski at 78.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 3–2 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0478.2%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.8pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1524 vs Mugowski 1390
Czerwinski
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 60% vs Mugowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 70% vs Mugowski 40%
Czerwinski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski -1 · Mugowski +3
Mugowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Czerwinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 1.25 / Mugowski 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Czerwinski)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13261851
Czerwinski1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 120 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 86 of 103
Mugowski3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 155 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 236
Down 0–2, comes back15% 18 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCzerwinski3wins
AwayMugowski2wins
4 of 5 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski33.3%1 of 3
AwayMugowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski3Mugowski2n = 5Czerwinski took 3 of 5
S2Czerwinski3Mugowski2n = 5Czerwinski took 3 of 5
S3Czerwinski4Mugowski1n = 5Czerwinski took 4 of 5
S4Czerwinski1Mugowski3n = 4Mugowski took 3 of 4
S5Czerwinski2Mugowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiMugowskiC − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.643.0+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 1018 vs 881 / 193748.3%45.5%492 / 1018 vs 881 / 1937Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiCzerwinski 1.25/Mugowski 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.2%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 1 · 12:15B. Czerwinski4811911892A. Mugowski51911911113
WSep 24 · 13:05B. Czerwinski331111113A. Mugowski269890
LSep 3 · 11:25B. Czerwinski4411791342A. Mugowski528111111113
WAug 27 · 07:40B. Czerwinski471011114113A. Mugowski4112661162
WNov 17 · 05:35B. Czerwinski46613115113A. Mugowski45111161162
B. Czerwinski10
WOct 8 · 18:50S. Brud1.83101181192B. Czerwinski1.83129119113LOct 8 · 16:30B. Czerwinski1.83791191P. Perzynski1.8311119113WOct 8 · 15:45M. Minda2.75311951B. Czerwinski1.4011911113WOct 8 · 14:40B. Czerwinski1.5811713113M. Minda2.258111181LOct 8 · 13:05B. Czerwinski1.80118130J. Zochniak1.911311153WOct 8 · 11:50B. Czerwinski1.361111113K. Klocek2.858570WOct 8 · 10:10B. Czerwinski1.781211113D. Solilo1.9110860LOct 8 · 09:00B. Czerwinski1.601112991B. Sulkowski2.1571411113WOct 7 · 14:40D. Solilo1.8096121152B. Czerwinski1.901111107113WOct 7 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.631111113M. Minda2.158770
A. Mugowski10
WOct 8 · 16:55M. Minda1.6781111792A. Mugowski2.10117911113WOct 8 · 15:25B. Sulkowski1.73811117102A. Mugowski2.00119711123WOct 8 · 00:35A. Mugowski2.38117116113P. Perzynski1.5381191192LOct 7 · 23:45S. Brud1.61811116113A. Mugowski2.2011771162LOct 7 · 22:35A. Mugowski2.001151071K. Rudomina1.7391112113LOct 7 · 21:50P. Blocho1.571111113A. Mugowski2.255840WOct 3 · 23:20K. Sulkowski2.359960A. Mugowski1.501111113LOct 3 · 22:35R. Stapor1.75111012113A. Mugowski1.987121091LOct 3 · 22:15A. Mugowski1.92611991D. Poloszczanski1.7911911113LOct 3 · 21:05M. Trela2.201111143A. Mugowski1.5778120
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