TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Czerwinski vs Michal Minda 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117117––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:20 and never touched: 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
118117117––––
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 8–6 Michal Minda Michal Minda has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2059.1%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 2.2pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Czerwinski
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1497 vs Minda 1428
Czerwinski
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 40% vs Minda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 40% vs Minda 20%
Czerwinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski +2 · Minda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Czerwinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Czerwinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 1.63 / Minda 2.15
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Czerwinski)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255014
Czerwinski1.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 117 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Minda2.15
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 128 of 335
Down 0–1, comes back23% 48 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCzerwinski5wins
AwayMinda5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski60%3 of 5
AwayMinda60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski5Minda5n = 10split evenly
S2Czerwinski5Minda5n = 10split evenly
S3Czerwinski4Minda6n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S4Czerwinski5Minda3n = 8Czerwinski took 5 of 8
S5Czerwinski3Minda3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiMindaC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.944.4−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime486 / 1009 vs 1010 / 197648.2%51.1%486 / 1009 vs 1010 / 1976Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiCzerwinski 1.63/Minda 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.1%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 09:25B. Czerwinski48511119123M. Minda47116911102
LSep 30 · 14:20B. Czerwinski208660M. Minda331111113
LSep 29 · 04:55B. Czerwinski4611145882M. Minda516121111113
WSep 28 · 14:20B. Czerwinski558111012143M. Minda531181210122
LSep 18 · 11:00B. Czerwinski4596111182M. Minda45111175113
WSep 9 · 08:30B. Czerwinski4011117113M. Minda35781191
WSep 8 · 06:25B. Czerwinski451121011113M. Minda4791112782
WJun 29 · 11:00B. Czerwinski361111143M. Minda2448120
LJun 17 · 06:05B. Czerwinski48137611112M. Minda551111119133
LJun 17 · 03:50B. Czerwinski466820121M. Minda54111118143
B. Czerwinski10
WOct 7 · 14:40D. Solilo1.8096121152B. Czerwinski1.901111107113WOct 7 · 12:15R. Stapor2.2916870B. Czerwinski1.561811113WOct 7 · 11:00M. Kukawka2.251311771B. Czerwinski1.5715511113LOct 7 · 09:25K. Sulkowski3.1511115113B. Czerwinski1.30971181LOct 6 · 14:20D. Solilo1.621111133B. Czerwinski2.1599110LOct 6 · 13:30M. Kolek1.6011119113B. Czerwinski2.20871191WOct 6 · 11:25A. Sobel1.8012611772B. Czerwinski1.851011611113WOct 6 · 10:35B. Sulkowski2.424980B. Czerwinski1.501111113LOct 6 · 09:00R. Stapor2.371115113B. Czerwinski1.5291350LOct 2 · 14:20J. Zochniak2.351071111113B. Czerwinski1.5012118572
M. Minda10
WOct 7 · 14:20M. Kukawka1.85115761M. Minda1.8061111113LOct 7 · 11:25K. Sulkowski2.6011311113M. Minda1.44611871WOct 7 · 10:35R. Stapor2.0011118292M. Minda1.70441111113WOct 7 · 09:00D. Solilo1.83851151M. Minda1.8611117113LOct 6 · 19:40M. Minda2.75761131D. Kosmal1.4011117113LOct 6 · 18:30M. Minda2.1010780L. Pietraszko1.671211113LOct 6 · 17:20M. Minda1.80101200P. Blocho1.911214113LOct 6 · 16:05A. Linek1.83111189113M. Minda1.8399111182LOct 6 · 15:25M. Minda2.105790A. Gromek1.671111113LOct 1 · 13:55M. Minda1.57312111072A. Mugowski2.201110912113
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