TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Milosz Kukawka vs Michal Minda 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116511711611––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Minda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
116511711611––
H2H Milosz Kukawka 3–1 Michal Minda Michal Minda has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Minda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kukawka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kukawka 1428 vs Minda 1416
Kukawka
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kukawka 40% vs Minda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kukawka 60% vs Minda 20%
Kukawka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kukawka +2 · Minda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Minda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKukawka 1.85 / Minda 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Minda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255013
Kukawka1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 51 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Minda1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 266 of 419
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it82% 201 of 246
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKukawka3wins
AwayMinda1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKukawka leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKukawka75%3 of 4
AwayMindan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kukawka4Minda0n = 4Kukawka took 4 of 4
S2Kukawka3Minda1n = 4Kukawka took 3 of 4
S3Kukawka1Minda3n = 4Minda took 3 of 4
S4Kukawka3Minda1n = 4Kukawka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKukawkaMindaK − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match42.542.2+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKukawkaMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime522 / 843 vs 1010 / 197761.9%51.1%522 / 843 vs 1010 / 1977Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MindaKukawka 1.85/Minda 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 1 · 06:00M. Kukawka48111111153M. Minda439813131
LSep 29 · 06:30M. Kukawka3612117242M. Minda501071111113
WJun 14 · 15:55M. Kukawka4113611113M. Minda391111891
WFeb 12 · 15:35M. Kukawka45111112113M. Minda37861491
M. Kukawka10
WOct 7 · 12:40K. Sulkowski2.6051060M. Kukawka1.411112113WOct 7 · 11:50D. Solilo1.801211111152M. Kukawka1.85146813113LOct 7 · 11:00M. Kukawka2.251311771B. Czerwinski1.5715511113LOct 7 · 09:50M. Kukawka1.785117141R. Stapor1.9311911163LOct 6 · 08:10M. Kukawka1.75851191J. Lamperski1.9511117113WOct 6 · 06:30D. Wrobel1.6871112942M. Kukawka2.081151011113WOct 6 · 05:40A. Sobel2.136490M. Kukawka1.641111113LOct 6 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.9561160B. Warpas1.751113113WOct 6 · 03:50M. Kukawka1.271111113M. Lukaszewski3.306760WOct 5 · 00:35M. Kukawka2.201111113J. Nadolny1.613590
M. Minda10
LOct 7 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.631111113M. Minda2.158770LOct 7 · 11:25K. Sulkowski2.6011311113M. Minda1.44611871WOct 7 · 10:35R. Stapor2.0011118292M. Minda1.70441111113WOct 7 · 09:00D. Solilo1.83851151M. Minda1.8611117113LOct 6 · 19:40M. Minda2.75761131D. Kosmal1.4011117113LOct 6 · 18:30M. Minda2.1010780L. Pietraszko1.671211113LOct 6 · 17:20M. Minda1.80101200P. Blocho1.911214113LOct 6 · 16:05A. Linek1.83111189113M. Minda1.8399111182LOct 6 · 15:25M. Minda2.105790A. Gromek1.671111113LOct 1 · 13:55M. Minda1.57312111072A. Mugowski2.201110912113
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