TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Minda vs Kamil Kostyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
911611811––––
H2H Michal Minda 4–4 Kamil Kostyk Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1054.0%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.8pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1443 vs Kostyk 1419
Minda
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 60% vs Kostyk 40%
Minda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 50% vs Kostyk 30%
Minda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -1 · Kostyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kostyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 1.91 / Kostyk 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kostyk)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274798
Minda1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 130 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back23% 49 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 106
Kostyk1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMinda4wins
AwayKostyk4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMinda66.7%4 of 6
AwayKostykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda6Kostyk2n = 8Minda took 6 of 8
S2Minda5Kostyk3n = 8Minda took 5 of 8
S3Minda1Kostyk7n = 8Kostyk took 7 of 8
S4Minda5Kostyk2n = 7Minda took 5 of 7
S5Minda1Kostyk2n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMindaKostykM − KBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match43.139.5+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime1003 / 1966 vs 225 / 46751%48.2%1003 / 1966 vs 225 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KostykMinda 1.91/Kostyk 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 21 · 15:00M. Minda48117811113K. Kostyk4171111842
WJul 27 · 07:15M. Minda49141113113K. Kostyk431281581
WJul 24 · 09:45M. Minda331111113K. Kostyk133370
LMay 19 · 05:40M. Minda37912971K. Kostyk43111011113
LMar 30 · 11:25M. Minda49128101182K. Kostyk521011128113
WFeb 20 · 10:25M. Minda4311119123K. Kostyk355911101
LFeb 20 · 05:10M. Minda35711981K. Kostyk4111811113
LOct 18 · 14:00M. Minda511111611122K. Kostyk48713113143
M. Minda10
WOct 10 · 12:35J. Lamperski1.83118991M. Minda1.8351111113LOct 10 · 11:45T. Filbrandt1.26111189113M. Minda3.4597111152WOct 10 · 10:55M. Minda1.8611212113T. Piotrowski1.8411101081WOct 10 · 09:45M. Minda1.8511811113B. Mleczko1.85911781LOct 8 · 20:05M. Minda2.109830P. Perzynski1.671111113WOct 8 · 18:30B. Sulkowski1.83911581M. Minda1.8311511113WOct 8 · 17:40S. Brud1.611571071M. Minda2.20131112113LOct 8 · 16:55M. Minda1.6781111792A. Mugowski2.10117911113LOct 8 · 15:45M. Minda2.75311951B. Czerwinski1.4011911113LOct 8 · 14:40B. Czerwinski1.5811713113M. Minda2.258111181
K. Kostyk10
LOct 10 · 13:25T. Piotrowski1.901151011113K. Kostyk1.8091112982WOct 10 · 11:20J. Lamperski1.7796130K. Kostyk1.931111153WOct 10 · 10:30B. Mleczko2.0589111472K. Kostyk1.701111512113LOct 10 · 09:00T. Filbrandt1.58118911113K. Kostyk2.2521111442LOct 10 · 08:05K. Klocek3.31101111113K. Kostyk1.29127891LOct 10 · 07:15B. Mleczko1.9011911133K. Kostyk1.809117111LOct 10 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.951211113K. Kostyk1.7710640WOct 10 · 04:25T. Piotrowski1.8581111672K. Kostyk1.86116711113LOct 10 · 03:00I. Dabrowski1.901211123K. Kostyk1.75106100LSep 21 · 23:20J. Mitas1.361111123K. Kostyk3.0097100
Upcoming Matches
M. Minda
Nothing scheduled
K. Kostyk
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.