TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Brud vs Michal Minda 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
15137111012711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:37 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeSzymon Brud to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSzymon Brud above · Michal Minda below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 86 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Szymon Brud at 60.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Brud 6–8 Michal Minda Szymon Brud has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3760.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Brud
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Minda
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brud 1511 vs Minda 1401
Brud
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brud 40% vs Minda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brud 40% vs Minda 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brud -2 · Minda -3
Minda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Brud) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brud form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrud 1.615 / Minda 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Brud)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259871
Brud1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 145 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it91% 59 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it77% 93 of 121
Minda2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 128 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back23% 48 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrud4wins
AwayMinda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMinda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrud66.7%2 of 3
AwayMinda71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brud3Minda7n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S2Brud5Minda5n = 10split evenly
S3Brud6Minda4n = 10Brud took 6 of 10
S4Brud2Minda4n = 6Minda took 4 of 6
S5Brud1Minda2n = 3Minda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrudMindaB − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.436.5−2.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrudMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1120 vs 1008 / 197552.7%51%590 / 1120 vs 1008 / 1975Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrudBrud 1.61/Minda 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Brud · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 03:40S. Brud164840M. Minda331111113
LSep 7 · 11:00S. Brud4711813872M. Minda517111111113
WSep 2 · 08:30S. Brud3961111113M. Minda35119781
LSep 1 · 05:35S. Brud154380M. Minda331111113
LAug 18 · 12:15S. Brud33811591M. Minda4111811113
WAug 18 · 03:20S. Brud531210119113M. Minda46101251182
WAug 17 · 08:05S. Brud4181111113M. Minda28113591
WAug 11 · 11:50S. Brud331111113M. Minda179350
LAug 11 · 06:50S. Brud511011111092M. Minda48125812113
LAug 10 · 04:25S. Brud166730M. Minda331111113
S. Brud10
LOct 8 · 16:05S. Brud1.571012891B. Sulkowski2.25121011113LOct 8 · 15:00S. Brud2.00971171P. Perzynski1.7311114113WOct 8 · 00:10P. Blocho2.001191281S. Brud1.7361114113WOct 7 · 23:45S. Brud1.61811116113A. Mugowski2.2011771162LOct 7 · 22:55S. Brud2.25311671P. Perzynski1.5711911113LOct 7 · 21:00S. Brud1.73122100K. Rudomina2.001411123WOct 7 · 20:05P. Perzynski1.577640S. Brud2.251111113LOct 7 · 19:15P. Blocho2.0081111113S. Brud1.73115991LOct 7 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.409111211113S. Brud2.7511914192WOct 7 · 16:30A. Myszewski2.3891141182S. Brud1.53118117113
M. Minda10
LOct 8 · 16:55M. Minda1.6781111792A. Mugowski2.10117911113LOct 8 · 15:45M. Minda2.75311951B. Czerwinski1.4011911113LOct 8 · 14:40B. Czerwinski1.5811713113M. Minda2.258111181WOct 8 · 13:30M. Minda2.051171311113B. Sulkowski1.6561115472WOct 8 · 12:15J. Zochniak1.681181071M. Minda2.0541112113LOct 8 · 11:00K. Klocek1.831111113M. Minda1.899890LOct 8 · 09:25D. Solilo1.801111113M. Minda1.866760WOct 7 · 14:20M. Kukawka1.85115761M. Minda1.8061111113LOct 7 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.631111113M. Minda2.158770LOct 7 · 11:25K. Sulkowski2.6011311113M. Minda1.44611871
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