TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Smesny vs Jiri Hyrsl 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012116411711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Hyrsl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Jiri Hyrsl below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Jiri Hyrsl at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 2–1 Jiri Hyrsl Jiri Hyrsl has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Smesny beat Hyrsl 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2854.0%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 7.3pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Hyrsl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1192 vs Hyrsl 1102
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 40% vs Hyrsl 60%
Hyrsl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 60% vs Hyrsl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny -1 · Hyrsl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hyrsl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.15 / Hyrsl 1.63
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smesny)-0.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13278850
Smesny2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 20 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Hyrsl1.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 20 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSmesny2wins
AwayHyrsl1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSmesny leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny2Hyrsl1n = 3Smesny took 2 of 3
S2Smesny2Hyrsl1n = 3Smesny took 2 of 3
S3Smesny2Hyrsl1n = 3Smesny took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSmesnyHyrslS − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.734.0+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyHyrslBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 348 vs 55 / 13552.3%40.7%182 / 348 vs 55 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HyrslSmesny 2.15/Hyrsl 1.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hyrsl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hyrsl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 11 · 07:30M. Smesny351111133J. Hyrsl2696110
LMay 3 · 06:00M. Smesny27117631J. Hyrsl4071111113
WFeb 22 · 08:00M. Smesny48711118113J. Hyrsl3611761112
M. Smesny10
LOct 11 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5061111113M. Smesny2.50118341WOct 11 · 07:30M. Smesny2.631111133J. Hyrsl1.4496110WOct 11 · 06:30V. Stach1.836880M. Smesny1.831111113LOct 9 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.4081111113M. Smesny2.75119621LOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781LOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny2.75411581J. Grohsgott1.4011911113WOct 9 · 06:30D. Mutl1.4449111192M. Smesny2.63111194113WOct 7 · 09:30D. Tomasch2.63111177132M. Smesny1.44971111153WOct 7 · 08:00M. Smesny1.5011118133D. Tomasch2.506811111WOct 7 · 07:30C. Havrda2.201191081M. Smesny1.6161112113
J. Hyrsl10
WOct 11 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.911711113V. Stach1.8015780LOct 11 · 07:30M. Smesny2.631111133J. Hyrsl1.4496110WOct 11 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.618111011113M. Vrabec2.2011312852WOct 4 · 08:59J. Hyrsl1.221111113J. Strnad4.006880LOct 4 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.441181091M. Vrabec2.6341112113LOct 4 · 07:30D. Cupec2.00511311113J. Hyrsl1.7311711792WOct 4 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.2811411113J. Strnad3.50711771WSep 20 · 08:58J. Cernik1.73511691J. Hyrsl2.0011411113LSep 20 · 08:30J. Hyrsl1.8067111182J. Martinek1.91111168113LSep 20 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.83111110772J. Cernik1.83671211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny
J. Hyrsl
Nothing scheduled
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