TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Cibik vs Ales Brandtl Jr 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 8 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131113118118119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 106 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Ales Brandtl Jr at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 16–13 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cibik beat Brandtl Jr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Cibik
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1495 vs Brandtl Jr 1510
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 60% vs Brandtl Jr 80%
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 40% vs Brandtl Jr 70%
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +1 · Brandtl Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Brandtl Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brandtl Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.833 / Brandtl Jr 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Brandtl Jr)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13276870
Cibik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Brandtl Jr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik6wins
AwayBrandtl Jr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik71.4%5 of 7
AwayBrandtl Jr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik7Brandtl Jr3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Cibik6Brandtl Jr4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S3Cibik2Brandtl Jr8n = 10Brandtl Jr took 8 of 10
S4Cibik3Brandtl Jr4n = 7Brandtl Jr took 4 of 7
S5Cibik3Brandtl Jr1n = 4Cibik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikBrandtl JrC − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.1−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikBrandtl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 680 vs 265 / 55246.8%48%318 / 680 vs 265 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Brandtl JrCibik 1.83/Brandtl Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Brandtl Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cibik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 21:25P. Cibik381115123A. Brandtl Jr31813100
WJul 6 · 18:55P. Cibik4011117113A. Brandtl Jr30761161
LJul 3 · 21:55P. Cibik236980A. Brandtl Jr331111113
WJul 3 · 18:20P. Cibik4211117133A. Brandtl Jr409911111
WMay 1 · 17:30P. Cibik45124126113A. Brandtl Jr501011101182
LMay 1 · 15:50P. Cibik4211117852A. Brandtl Jr47951111113
WApr 12 · 09:28P. Cibik5411111011113A. Brandtl Jr4859121392
WApr 12 · 07:20P. Cibik47611313143A. Brandtl Jr531181111122
LFeb 11 · 22:20P. Cibik391291081A. Brandtl Jr44101112113
LFeb 11 · 21:20P. Cibik2371150A. Brandtl Jr351113113
P. Cibik10
WOct 10 · 21:25P. Cibik1.831115123A. Brandtl Jr1.83813100LOct 10 · 19:55Z. Dusek2.10119119113P. Cibik1.6741161192WOct 10 · 19:25L. Vich2.0071011101P. Cibik1.7311125123WOct 9 · 17:34M. Cesak1.50811781P. Cibik2.5011611113LOct 9 · 16:20P. Cibik2.101111761M. Cesak1.6761311113LOct 9 · 15:20P. Cibik1.405141171M. Kolbusovsky2.7511166113LOct 9 · 14:20P. Cibik1.57881191S. Matousch2.2511119113LOct 8 · 21:58P. Cibik2.109960Z. Vyskocil1.671111113LOct 8 · 20:55L. Vich1.8791111113P. Cibik1.83114291WOct 8 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil1.7381191182P. Cibik2.00116116113
A. Brandtl Jr10
LOct 10 · 21:25P. Cibik1.831115123A. Brandtl Jr1.83813100WOct 10 · 20:25A. Brandtl Jr1.73114711113L. Vich2.0061111872WOct 10 · 18:55Z. Dusek3.25511871A. Brandtl Jr1.3311911113WOct 10 · 18:29D. Zelezny1.4061161182A. Brandtl Jr2.75114117113WOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113LOct 10 · 16:25D. Zelezny1.2811711113A. Brandtl Jr3.50811791WOct 10 · 15:25A. Brandtl Jr1.8311118113D. Vojna1.83551171WOct 3 · 18:04V. Koutnik1.50711541A. Brandtl Jr2.4011911113WOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113LOct 3 · 16:25A. Brandtl Jr2.2515960V. Koutnik1.571711103
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