TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Unzeitig vs Zbynek Pagac 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115119––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Unzeitig above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Zbynek Pagac at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Unzeitig 13–33 Zbynek Pagac Daniel Unzeitig has won 13 of their 46 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Unzeitig beat Pagac 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pagac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-33 in 46
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 20 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Unzeitig 1683 vs Pagac 1574
Unzeitig
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Unzeitig 100% vs Pagac 40%
Unzeitig
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Unzeitig 80% vs Pagac 30%
Unzeitig
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Unzeitig +5 · Pagac +1
Unzeitig
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pagac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUnzeitig 1.90 / Pagac 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pagac)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13276693
Unzeitig1.90
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog36% won 38 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Pagac1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 112 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUnzeitig4wins
AwayPagac6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUnzeitig57.1%4 of 7
AwayPagac100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Unzeitig7Pagac3n = 10Unzeitig took 7 of 10
S2Unzeitig4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Unzeitig2Pagac7n = 9Pagac took 7 of 9
S4Unzeitig2Pagac2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUnzeitigPagacU − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match31.434.4−3.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUnzeitigPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 323 vs 337 / 71448%47.2%155 / 323 vs 337 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PagacUnzeitig 1.90/Pagac 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Unzeitig won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 9 · 16:30D. Unzeitig331111113Z. Pagac167540
WOct 5 · 16:30D. Unzeitig45111112113Z. Pagac37971471
LSep 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig218850Z. Pagac331111113
WSep 27 · 16:30D. Unzeitig341112113Z. Pagac2561090
LSep 17 · 17:30D. Unzeitig154380Z. Pagac331111113
LSep 17 · 16:00D. Unzeitig35117891Z. Pagac3961111113
LSep 12 · 10:00D. Unzeitig361181071Z. Pagac4061112113
LSep 11 · 16:30D. Unzeitig228680Z. Pagac331111113
LSep 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig4211751452Z. Pagac549111112113
D. Unzeitig10
WOct 10 · 20:30D. Unzeitig1.44111111163D. Langer2.635135141WOct 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.001113123Z. Pagac1.73911100WOct 10 · 18:00T. Kypr1.919780D. Unzeitig1.801111113WOct 9 · 17:30D. Unzeitig1.801111113T. Kypr1.907590WOct 9 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.577540D. Unzeitig2.251111113LOct 9 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9111671182M. Holub1.80611115113WOct 9 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8081160D. Unzeitig1.911113113LOct 5 · 17:29D. Unzeitig2.209111281J. Holubec1.6111714113WOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.50971471D. Unzeitig2.50111112113WOct 5 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9113118133D. Langer1.8011911111
Z. Pagac10
WOct 10 · 20:00T. Kypr1.679950Z. Pagac2.101111113LOct 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.001113123Z. Pagac1.73911100WOct 10 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.5311911113D. Langer2.38711461LOct 9 · 17:00M. Holub1.571111113Z. Pagac2.256850LOct 9 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.577540D. Unzeitig2.251111113LOct 9 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.915440T. Kypr1.801111113WOct 9 · 14:00M. Holub2.10101211582Z. Pagac1.671210311113LOct 6 · 21:00D. Szotek1.831411113Z. Pagac1.8312680LOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113LOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.50971471D. Unzeitig2.50111112113
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