TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zbynek Pagac vs Daniel Langer 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911114116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched: 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Daniel Langer below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Zbynek Pagac at 55.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 2–0 Daniel Langer Daniel Langer has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2455.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 9.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1552 vs Langer 1691
Langer
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 20% vs Langer 40%
Langer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 30% vs Langer 60%
Langer
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -3 · Langer -1
Pagac
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Pagac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.533 / Langer 2.375
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Langer)+2.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13269114
Pagac1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 112 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Langer2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 19 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePagac2wins
AwayLanger0wins
Pagac leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPagacLangerP − LBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.020.5+12.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 711 vs 132 / 19847.1%66.7%335 / 711 vs 132 / 198Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.53/Langer 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.6%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 5 · 16:58Z. Pagac331111113D. Langer237790
WOct 5 · 14:00Z. Pagac331111113D. Langer188460
Z. Pagac10
LOct 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.001113123Z. Pagac1.73911100LOct 9 · 17:00M. Holub1.571111113Z. Pagac2.256850LOct 9 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.577540D. Unzeitig2.251111113LOct 9 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.915440T. Kypr1.801111113WOct 9 · 14:00M. Holub2.10101211582Z. Pagac1.671210311113LOct 6 · 21:00D. Szotek1.831411113Z. Pagac1.8312680LOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113LOct 6 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.75761141M. Chalupa1.4011112113WOct 6 · 18:00D. Szotek1.83711115102Z. Pagac1.83115911123WOct 5 · 16:58Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Langer2.507790
D. Langer10
WOct 10 · 19:30D. Langer2.6361111113T. Kypr1.44116691LOct 5 · 16:58Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Langer2.507790WOct 5 · 16:00D. Langer1.831116133J. Holubec1.83714110LOct 5 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9113118133D. Langer1.8011911111LOct 5 · 14:00D. Langer2.388460Z. Pagac1.531111113WOct 4 · 09:28R. Skacelik1.9161151152D. Langer1.80119117113WOct 4 · 08:00D. Langer1.361311113D. Heczko3.0011970WOct 4 · 07:30E. Rychlik1.91311412112D. Langer1.801181110133LOct 4 · 06:00D. Langer1.5711980R. Skacelik2.251311113WSep 29 · 17:30D. Langer1.6711711113A. Walek2.10711461
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