TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zbynek Pagac vs Tomas Kypr 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411411––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kypr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Tomas Kypr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Tomas Kypr at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 6–4 Tomas Kypr Tomas Kypr has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:5654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kypr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1589 vs Kypr 1637
Kypr
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 40% vs Kypr 60%
Kypr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 50% vs Kypr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +1 · Kypr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kypr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.909 / Kypr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kypr)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264738
Pagac1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back19% 26 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 98
Kypr1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac6wins
AwayKypr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac83.3%5 of 6
AwayKypr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac6Kypr4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S2Pagac6Kypr4n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Pagac3Kypr7n = 10Kypr took 7 of 10
S4Pagac4Kypr4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacKyprP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.4+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacKyprBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 708 vs 73 / 13647.3%53.7%335 / 708 vs 73 / 136Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KyprPagac 1.91/Kypr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kypr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kypr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 15:00Z. Pagac4212811113T. Kypr361011961
LSep 26 · 20:30Z. Pagac203980T. Kypr331111113
WSep 17 · 20:30Z. Pagac44121173113T. Kypr43104111172
WSep 16 · 14:30Z. Pagac331111113T. Kypr239860
WSep 15 · 14:30Z. Pagac4011117113T. Kypr32961161
WSep 11 · 17:30Z. Pagac49711611143T. Kypr45113118122
LSep 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac41149991T. Kypr45121111113
WSep 10 · 21:28Z. Pagac43111110113T. Kypr28661241
LSep 10 · 20:00Z. Pagac31813551T. Kypr44111111113
LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac399713101T. Kypr45111111123
Z. Pagac10
WOct 9 · 14:00M. Holub2.10101211582Z. Pagac1.671210311113LOct 6 · 21:00D. Szotek1.831411113Z. Pagac1.8312680LOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113LOct 6 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.75761141M. Chalupa1.4011112113WOct 6 · 18:00D. Szotek1.83711115102Z. Pagac1.83115911123WOct 5 · 16:58Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Langer2.507790LOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.50971471D. Unzeitig2.50111112113LOct 5 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.576131011102J. Holubec2.251111125123WOct 5 · 14:00D. Langer2.388460Z. Pagac1.531111113WSep 27 · 17:30D. Unzeitig2.008850Z. Pagac1.731111113
T. Kypr10
WOct 9 · 16:00M. Holub2.6311611462T. Kypr1.44411911113LOct 9 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8081160D. Unzeitig1.911113113LOct 2 · 21:30T. Kypr1.65811931L. Kern2.1011511113WOct 2 · 20:30M. Holub2.209740T. Kypr1.611111113WOct 2 · 19:30T. Kypr2.1011912113M. Chalupa1.677111051WOct 2 · 18:30L. Kern2.38172161T. Kypr1.53111119113LSep 28 · 20:59M. Chalupa1.6711119123T. Kypr2.107911101LSep 28 · 20:30M. Holub2.631311113T. Kypr1.4411950LSep 28 · 19:30T. Kypr2.0010118121M. Chalupa1.7312911143LSep 28 · 18:30D. Szotek2.251113115123T. Kypr1.57715811102
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.