TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Zbynek Pagac vs Daniel Unzeitig 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511411––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched: 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeZbynek Pagac to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Daniel Unzeitig below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 49 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Zbynek Pagac at 58.3%
49 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 33–11 Daniel Unzeitig Daniel Unzeitig has won 11 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2258.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 5.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pagac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-11 in 44
Pagac
Wrong
gap of 22 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1577 vs Unzeitig 1621
Unzeitig
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 20% vs Unzeitig 60%
Unzeitig
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 40% vs Unzeitig 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -1 · Unzeitig -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Pagac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Unzeitig form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 1.571 / Unzeitig 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Pagac)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264689
Pagac1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 111 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it77% 73 of 95
Unzeitig2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac8wins
AwayUnzeitig2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac100%5 of 5
AwayUnzeitig40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac5Unzeitig5n = 10split evenly
S2Pagac7Unzeitig3n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S3Pagac9Unzeitig1n = 10Pagac took 9 of 10
S4Pagac2Unzeitig3n = 5Unzeitig took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacUnzeitigP − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.531.0+6.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacUnzeitigBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 709 vs 150 / 31847.3%47.2%335 / 709 vs 150 / 318Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PagacPagac 1.57/Unzeitig 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.3%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Unzeitig won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac37971471D. Unzeitig45111112113
WSep 27 · 17:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig218850
LSep 27 · 16:30Z. Pagac2561090D. Unzeitig341112113
WSep 17 · 17:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig154380
WSep 17 · 16:00Z. Pagac3961111113D. Unzeitig35117891
WSep 12 · 10:00Z. Pagac4061112113D. Unzeitig361181071
WSep 11 · 16:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig228680
WSep 10 · 19:00Z. Pagac549111112113D. Unzeitig4211751452
WAug 4 · 06:30Z. Pagac331111113D. Unzeitig198650
WAug 3 · 10:00Z. Pagac48119116113D. Unzeitig4181151162
Z. Pagac10
LOct 9 · 17:00M. Holub1.571111113Z. Pagac2.256850LOct 9 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.915440T. Kypr1.801111113WOct 9 · 14:00M. Holub2.10101211582Z. Pagac1.671210311113LOct 6 · 21:00D. Szotek1.831411113Z. Pagac1.8312680LOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113LOct 6 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.75761141M. Chalupa1.4011112113WOct 6 · 18:00D. Szotek1.83711115102Z. Pagac1.83115911123WOct 5 · 16:58Z. Pagac1.501111113D. Langer2.507790LOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.50971471D. Unzeitig2.50111112113LOct 5 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.576131011102J. Holubec2.251111125123
D. Unzeitig10
LOct 9 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9111671182M. Holub1.80611115113WOct 9 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8081160D. Unzeitig1.911113113LOct 5 · 17:29D. Unzeitig2.209111281J. Holubec1.6111714113WOct 5 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.50971471D. Unzeitig2.50111112113WOct 5 · 15:30D. Unzeitig1.9113118133D. Langer1.8011911111LOct 5 · 14:30J. Holubec1.731116113D. Unzeitig2.0081490WSep 30 · 17:10D. Unzeitig1.7391111113J. Holubec2.00117671LSep 30 · 16:30D. Unzeitig2.00121179122J. Simecek1.731091111143WSep 30 · 15:00D. Unzeitig2.25117811133J. Holubec1.57911111112LSep 30 · 14:00M. Holub1.73311511113D. Unzeitig2.0011511792
Upcoming Matches
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D. Unzeitig
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