TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Kypr vs Zbynek Pagac 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911511––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:44 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Kypr to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Zbynek Pagac @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingTomas Kypr above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Tomas Kypr at 57.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kypr 5–6 Zbynek Pagac Tomas Kypr has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 19:44Sent to Pro: Zbynek Pagac @ 2.20 · Won
57.7%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.3pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kypr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kypr 1619 vs Pagac 1557
Kypr
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kypr 40% vs Pagac 20%
Kypr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kypr 50% vs Pagac 30%
Kypr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kypr -3 · Pagac -1
Kypr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kypr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKypr 1.666 / Pagac 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kypr)-2.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268964
Kypr1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 42 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 34 of 43
Pagac2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKypr4wins
AwayPagac6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKypr75%3 of 4
AwayPagac83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kypr4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S2Kypr4Pagac6n = 10Pagac took 6 of 10
S3Kypr8Pagac2n = 10Kypr took 8 of 10
S4Kypr3Pagac4n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKyprPagacK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.235.6+0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyprPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 141 vs 336 / 71353.2%47.1%75 / 141 vs 336 / 713Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PagacKypr 1.67/Pagac 2.10
Hit
What we said
57.7%
Kypr · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Zbynek Pagac @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
0–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 15:00T. Kypr331111113Z. Pagac135440
LSep 27 · 15:00T. Kypr361011961Z. Pagac4212811113
WSep 26 · 20:30T. Kypr331111113Z. Pagac203980
LSep 17 · 20:30T. Kypr43104111172Z. Pagac44121173113
LSep 16 · 14:30T. Kypr239860Z. Pagac331111113
LSep 15 · 14:30T. Kypr32961161Z. Pagac4011117113
LSep 11 · 17:30T. Kypr45113118122Z. Pagac49711611143
WSep 11 · 15:00T. Kypr45121111113Z. Pagac41149991
LSep 10 · 21:28T. Kypr28661241Z. Pagac43111110113
WSep 10 · 20:00T. Kypr44111111113Z. Pagac31813551
T. Kypr10
LOct 10 · 19:30D. Langer2.6361111113T. Kypr1.44116691LOct 10 · 18:00T. Kypr1.919780D. Unzeitig1.801111113LOct 9 · 17:30D. Unzeitig1.801111113T. Kypr1.907590WOct 9 · 16:00M. Holub2.6311611462T. Kypr1.44411911113WOct 9 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.915440T. Kypr1.801111113LOct 9 · 14:30T. Kypr1.8081160D. Unzeitig1.911113113LOct 2 · 21:30T. Kypr1.65811931L. Kern2.1011511113WOct 2 · 20:30M. Holub2.209740T. Kypr1.611111113WOct 2 · 19:30T. Kypr2.1011912113M. Chalupa1.677111051WOct 2 · 18:30L. Kern2.38172161T. Kypr1.53111119113
Z. Pagac10
LOct 10 · 19:00D. Unzeitig2.001113123Z. Pagac1.73911100WOct 10 · 18:30Z. Pagac1.5311911113D. Langer2.38711461LOct 9 · 17:00M. Holub1.571111113Z. Pagac2.256850LOct 9 · 16:30Z. Pagac1.577540D. Unzeitig2.251111113LOct 9 · 15:00Z. Pagac1.915440T. Kypr1.801111113WOct 9 · 14:00M. Holub2.10101211582Z. Pagac1.671210311113LOct 6 · 21:00D. Szotek1.831411113Z. Pagac1.8312680LOct 6 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.8011111221M. Holub1.9191314113LOct 6 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.75761141M. Chalupa1.4011112113WOct 6 · 18:00D. Szotek1.83711115102Z. Pagac1.83115911123
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