TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Hetnar vs Jakub Jesiek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesBLW · Blachownia
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118114––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:34 and never touched: 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
116118114––––
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 2–1 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3460.2%Our read64.9%to break even at 1.54
short by 4.7pp64.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.54 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1490 vs Jesiek 1369
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 80% vs Jesiek 40%
Hetnar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 80% vs Jesiek 40%
Hetnar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar -1 · Jesiek -3
Jesiek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Hetnar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.54 / Jesiek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Hetnar)-4.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13273238
Hetnar1.54
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 286 of 416
Up 2–0, closes it98% 157 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it85% 227 of 267
Jesiek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 80 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHetnar2wins
AwayJesiek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHetnar leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar66.7%2 of 3
AwayJesiekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar3Jesiek0n = 3Hetnar took 3 of 3
S2Hetnar3Jesiek0n = 3Hetnar took 3 of 3
S3Hetnar2Jesiek1n = 3Hetnar took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHetnarJesiekH − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match35.729.3+6.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime714 / 1147 vs 296 / 56762.3%52.2%714 / 1147 vs 296 / 567Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.54/Jesiek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.2%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 10 · 07:35K. Hetnar331111113J. Jesiek186840
WDec 29 · 02:35K. Hetnar331111113J. Jesiek249960
LDec 28 · 20:35K. Hetnar4111119462J. Jesiek46671111113
K. Hetnar10
LOct 10 · 06:25W. Pytlas2.1511117113K. Hetnar1.60751191WOct 10 · 05:10I. Szymanski4.458540K. Hetnar1.151111113WOct 10 · 03:35M. Koczyba1.956760K. Hetnar1.751111113WOct 8 · 08:20P. Kurek2.10117451K. Hetnar1.6081111113WOct 8 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3.301112771K. Hetnar1.2771411113WOct 8 · 05:35P. Gumulinski2.1312460K. Hetnar1.561411113WOct 8 · 04:50A. Burkacki3.50212761K. Hetnar1.27111011113WOct 8 · 03:10M. Cesarz5.803280K. Hetnar1.101111113LOct 6 · 16:40B. Madej1.93121175113K. Hetnar1.78109111172WOct 6 · 15:55M. Jozefiak2.503390K. Hetnar1.451111113
J. Jesiek10
LOct 10 · 05:35M. Koczyba1.78111011113J. Jesiek1.93412521LOct 10 · 04:50W. Pytlas1.8812119113J. Jesiek1.821061151LOct 10 · 03:10K. Adamus1.881111113J. Jesiek1.829890WOct 4 · 14:40P. Polok1.5011940J. Jesiek2.501311113WOct 4 · 13:30J. Jesiek2.00116117113W. Buczynski1.7391151152LOct 4 · 12:15D. Swider1.61811129113J. Jesiek2.20117101182WOct 4 · 11:00R. Idaczyk1.8313117582J. Jesiek1.831141111113LOct 4 · 09:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.831112113J. Jesiek1.8371040LOct 4 · 08:35D. Swider1.7311113113J. Jesiek2.00471181WOct 4 · 07:20J. Jesiek1.831111113W. Buczynski1.835650
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.