TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dariusz Swider vs Jakub Jesiek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Dariusz Swider
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117311118––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDariusz Swider to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDariusz Swider above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 66 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Dariusz Swider at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Swider 1–0 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:3354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Swider
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Swider 1397 vs Jesiek 1411
Jesiek
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Swider 40% vs Jesiek 60%
Jesiek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Swider 40% vs Jesiek 80%
Jesiek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Swider -3 · Jesiek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Swider) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Swider form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSwider 1.727 / Jesiek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Swider)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238104
Swider1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jesiek2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog45% won 77 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSwider1wins
AwayJesiek0wins
Swider leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSwiderJesiekS − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.030.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSwiderJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 15 vs 293 / 55853.3%52.5%8 / 15 vs 293 / 558Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SwiderSwider 1.73/Jesiek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Swider · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Swider won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 4 · 08:35D. Swider3611113113J. Jesiek30471181
D. Swider10
LOct 4 · 06:55D. Swider1.91117140P. Polok1.801311163LOct 4 · 05:40D. Swider1.5778100R. Idaczyk2.251111123LOct 4 · 04:10D. Swider1.831171041W. Wojtaszczyk1.839111273WOct 4 · 03:00D. Swider1.5311511113W. Buczynski2.38511951WOct 3 · 17:05D. Swider1.8591111113R. Idaczyk1.85116571LOct 3 · 15:30D. Swider—11515101P. Jedrzejak—41117123LOct 3 · 14:20D. Swider1.6381111882D. Morawiec2.16115811113WOct 3 · 12:45D. Swider2.001111113P. Gumulinski1.725410LOct 3 · 11:30D. Swider—11119472R. Wojcik—761111113WOct 3 · 10:20R. Idaczyk—711951D. Swider—11811113
J. Jesiek10
LOct 4 · 09:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.831112113J. Jesiek1.8371040WOct 4 · 07:20J. Jesiek1.831111113W. Buczynski1.835650WOct 4 · 06:05P. Polok1.44510120J. Jesiek2.631112143WOct 4 · 04:55R. Idaczyk2.007630J. Jesiek1.731111113LOct 4 · 03:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.6791111123J. Jesiek2.101198101LOct 3 · 14:20P. Polok1.5751111113J. Jesiek2.25115581WOct 3 · 13:30O. Sokolowski2.63891121J. Jesiek1.4411118113WOct 3 · 11:25L. Bernacki1.736190J. Jesiek2.001111113WOct 3 · 10:35W. Wojtaszczyk1.83911111192J. Jesiek1.83111399113WOct 3 · 09:00S. Sojka1.833117101J. Jesiek1.8311811123
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